Every year at this time, I like to look ahead to the New Year and make forecasts in the spirit of Byron Wien, who used to put out his “10 Surprises” list. Mr. Wien would put out 10 possible events for the new year that he noted were outside the consensus thinking, but for which he thought had a greater than 50/50 chance of happening. I am not placing a probability on these events, so I will simply call them “10 Things For 2026.” I became familiar with Mr. Wien’s work during the 1990’s when I was still an equity analyst who thought he knew everything and Mr. Wien was an investment strategist for Morgan Stanley, and who knew much more than I did. Most of Mr. Wien’s predictions naturally centered around the financial markets. Mine will include the financial markets but will also include other areas of interest to me.
Overall, I am not optimistic
about 2026, either from a financial market perspective or any other
perspective. Next year should be a year that this country should be in quite a celebratory
mood, as it will mark the 250th anniversary of the passage of the
Declaration of Independence, in which we declared our separation from Great
Britain. This was one of the most notable events in all human history, and yet
I am not convinced that the citizens of the United States appreciate what our
Revolution truly meant. As Abigail Adams wrote to her husband John, “Future
generations who will reap the blessings will scarcely know the hardships and
sufferings that we’ve endured on their behalf.” We are becoming – or have
become – the very people that we rebelled against 250 years ago.
In short, 2026 is looking like a
year in which our chickens will come home to roost. Our culture has been building
up towards some sort of catastrophic event, or events, for a number of years.
We live in a restless and angry age. We are losing our humanity. We are losing
our soul. We are normalizing political violence and have become accepting of
it. We place a lower value on human life. Our closest and most intimate
relationships are becoming transactional.
I know that many will see reasons
to be optimistic. I look for AI to continue producing strong results, although
we are seeing a noticeable slowing in that sector. Inflation looks like it is
well tamed, wages are rising and this bodes well for affordability.
Here are my 10 Things For 2026:
1. I know that I am way outside the consensus on
my first “10 Things” outlook for 2026. The consensus is calling for stock indexes
to rise by double digits next year. What I see is that stock market indexes
will produce a negative return next year. There are several factors at work
here. First, valuations are historically high, specifically with the “Mag 7”
stocks that have continued to soar higher. Higher stock prices do not fall
simply because they are overvalued. There needs to be a catalyst, a reason to
send the stocks down, and that typically comes from either a slowing economy or
from some sort of financial crisis. Second, an historically high amount of
stock has been purchased on margin (ie debt). Falling stock prices produce
margin calls, which makes dramatic drops in stock prices even worse. Finally,
the stock market tends to follow a Presidential cycle. During that cycle, the
year of the mid-term elections usually produces a below average return, and I
believe we will see more of the same in 2026.
2. Another
area where I am outside the consensus is economic growth. According to The Blue
Chip Survey, GDP is expected to come in at 1.9% for 2026, which is below average.
I think economic growth might be less than that, more in line with 1%. Minds
much smarter than me see many tail winds that will produce higher than expected
growth with moderate inflation, but I see head winds that could slow down the economy.
For the economy to hold up like the experts are predicting, employment will
need to hold up. I think employment is highly vulnerable next year.
3. I
talk of chickens coming home to roost in 2026, and this will occur in several
places. First, household debt is at record levels and continues to climb.
Mortgage debt, auto debt, credit card debt and personal debt are all at record
high levels. This can go on as long as employment holds up. However, the latest
employment report put the unemployment rate at 4.6%, the highest level in four
years. My personal belief is that the economy has been a house of cards for the
past 3-4 years, largely because the growth has built by an unsustainable mountain
of debt. Job growth in full-time employment has been stagnant during this time
and the growth in jobs has come from areas like contract jobs, gig economy jobs
and part-time jobs. I would not be surprised to see unemployment rise to more
than 5% - 5.5% in 2026, which would produce in spike up in credit defaults and
bankruptcies.
4. Crypto
currency will be another area where the chickens come home to roost. Bitcoin is
down about 8.5% on the year as I write this, and this is an asset that can
easily see a big drop in a hurry. As anyone who has ever sat in finance class
at an accredited university knows, the intrinsic value of any financial asset
equals the present value of the future cash flow streams. The intrinsic value
of bitcoin is literally zero. What backs its valuation? Air? Right now, this is
an asset that looks like it is dependent on the greater fool theory, and the
world will be running out of greater fools in 2026 (the world will not be
running out of greater fools – those greater fools will be running out of
money). Any flight to quality, which I believe we will see in 2026, will not
include Bitcoin or any other crypto currency.
5. Gold
and silver will be two assets that will hold their value in 2026. While both have
experienced tremendous rallies in 2025, a flight to quality will include both
assets. Both assets tend to spike up in price during inflationary times. I do
not see inflation being a problem in 2026. I do see inflation staying in the
3%-3.5% range for the year, which is higher than the fed would like. However,
given the struggles that we will see in other areas of the economy, I do expect
to see interest rate cuts during 2026.
6. I
really hope I am wrong with this one, but I think we will see a significant act
of political violence in 2026. Perhaps multiple acts. We live in a restless and
angry age, one in which people feel justified in committing acts of violence.
7. In
the fall mid-term elections, I expect the Democrats will retake the house and I
believe the Republicans will hold onto the Senate.
8. By
the end of 2026, I expect that we will see increasing calls for President Trump
to resign coming from an unexpected source: Republicans. The President gave us
quite a glimpse into this with his appalling reaction to the tragic death of
Rob Reiner, which he managed to make about himself. Republicans widely condemned
the President’s reaction. When confronted about this by a reporter, Trump
doubled down on his awful take. I get that Mr. Reiner said awful and nasty
things about the President on social media. But when you are the President, you
must be the bigger person and take the high road every time. The overall
reaction was not one of an emotionally and mentally healthy person. Reactions
like this will become more frequent and equally as extreme, if not more so. Of
course, President Trump would never consider resigning. This is akin to losing
in his book and he honestly does not have a mentally healthy approach to
losing.
9. The
Ohio State Buckeyes will repeat as college football champions defeating the
Texas Tech Red Raiders, and the Los Angeles Rams will win the Super Bowl over
the Houston Texans. The Michigan Wolverines will beat the Arizona Wildcats for
the college basketball national championship.
10. Venezuela promises to be a hot spot in the world in 2026. This is ultimately about the oil. Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world. Larger than Saudi Arabia, larger than any Middle Eastern country and most definitely more than either Russia or the United States. And yet, their economy is on the verge of collapse (how does that happen with that much oil? – See below)
I want to close out with thoughts
about a couple of things that made advances in the marketplace of ideas in
2025. When I was a fresh-faced rookie equity analyst back in the early 1990’s,
I was given a great piece of advice. That advice was that these are the five
most dangerous words on Wall Street: “It is different this time.” The words not
only apply to Wall Street, but to all parts of life. Yes, people have different
tools and different toys at their disposal, but human nature has not changed
since Biblical times and will not change in the future. When you argue that it
is different this time, you are saying that human nature will change. It never
will. I thought about this as I saw two recycled – and failed – ideas from the
past come forward again in 2025. Those two ideas are: 1. Tariffs and 2. Socialism.
President Trump has made tariffs a foundational piece of his economic program.
But I do not think he really knows what a tariff is. A tariff is a tax, pure
and simple. It is a tax paid by the end consumer. I believe that President
Trump thinks that other countries will dip into their Treasuries to pay the
tariffs. Nothing could be further from the truth. There is not one school of
economic thought that says that higher taxes – whether it is a tariff, a higher
income tax, or an increase in any other tax – produces widespread prosperity.
In fact, every school of economics believes that taxes hold down economic
growth. As for socialism, it always sounds appealing in theory, but in practice
has produced miserable results. In the present debate of “Socialism vs
Capitalism,” I will always side with capitalism. Socialism revolves around
state ownership of the means of production, and governments have proven them
highly inefficient allocators of capital. A recent article (https://bit.ly/4saAppt) explains
it well and echoes my beliefs on this subject. I am a big believer in free
markets and free enterprise. I am also a big believer in the idea that human
nature does not change.
I feel as though I must apologize
to the reader for such a pessimistic outlook for 2026. I hope that in many
ways, I am wrong in my outlook. If you made it this far, thank you for reading.
I wish everyone a blessed 2026 with much love to all.
