Whew! We made it through the first week of the US government shutdown and the world did not end. However, I could not help but notice lots of talk about this on my Facebook page, particularly from my liberal/Democrat friends. Certainly, there was plenty of commentary about how this shutdown was entirely the Republican's fault. It simply isn't that easy.
A problem this big was not caused by one party alone. Both sides share equally in the blame for this shutdown and both sides share equally in the failure to date to come to an agreement. Neither side will talk to the other, which makes any kind of agreement impossible. The tactics employed by both sides are disgraceful. Find me one adult, find me one leader in this whole mess. There are none. The Republican strategy of defunding the portions of the budget that include the Affordable Care Act are simply delusional. Whether you like it or not, it is the law of the land and should receive appropriate funding. For the Democrats to blame Republicans for the shutdown while they refuse to even bring one continuing resolution to a vote to keep the government operating is equally reprehensible. And the President's failure to talk with congressional leaders of either party is an utter lack of leadership, which has been a recurring theme in his Presidency. There is plenty of blame for all parties, not just one.
Regarding the Affordable Care Act, the Republicans are right to argue about it. Why should they embrace this law? This law was passed on a strictly partisan basis, with bought votes in the middle of the night in back rooms, and through legislative sleight of hand by the Senate Majority Leader. They are right to question whether or not this will truly lead to higher quality, more affordable health care. They are right to question all the law's selling points in light of American businesses, particularly small businesses, conducting their affairs in perverse and sometimes strange ways to keep themselves operating in light of this law. To watch small businesses doing handstands and cart wheels to avoid this law's mandates is sad, and for this country's leaders to sit back, watch it happen and do nothing is inexcusable. Remember when it used to be a milestone for a company to hire its 50th employee? Now, it is a millstone to be avoided at all costs. Company's big and small should not have to cut benefits, especially to spouses and children, cut employee hours or fire workers to avoid the high costs associated with this law. But, that is what's happening, whether at the community bank or at companies as large as Walgreen's and UPS. It is not a "settled" law as the President says, and my best guess is that it will not be settled and accepted for at least another 2 to 3 generations, largely because of the manner in which this bill was passed into law.
Republicans need to accept that this is the law of the land and allow it to be funded. Democrats need to understand that this is a deeply flawed law that is hurting American business and is damaging the economy. And maybe...a big maybe...both sides can be grown up adults, talk to each other and see if a solution can be reached. I need to pause so that I can stop laughing at that last statement. This is going to take leadership, something that is utterly lacking in Washington these days, and maybe a miracle or two.
What this means for 2014 Elections
Unfortunately for Democrats, the Republicans hold all the cards in the 2014 mid term elections. Never underestimate the Republicans ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But as of now, they are in a clear position of strength. First, the party that does not hold the White House usually gains congressional seats in the mid-term elections. They usually have the more fired up voting base. Next, the Republicans are trying to do away with an unpopular law. Every opinion poll over the past 3 1/2 years shows that over 50% of the people surveyed disapprove of this law. The latest polls from CNN and the New York Times show a roughly 3-2 edge for those who disapprove of the law. The strategy the Republicans are employing is numbingly stupid, but polling data shows they are on the right side of this issue. Finally, the Republicans in the house are largely in very safe districts while the Democrats are quite vulnerable in the Senate. Currently, the Republicans hold 234 House seats while the Democrats hold 201. In a recent article, Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics noted that Republican incumbents only hold 17 House seats in which that district voted for Obama in 2012. In other words, lots of safe Republican seats. The Democrats would have to win all 17 of these seats while losing none themselves to Republicans to regain a majority. Not likely to happen, and I would be amazed if the Democrats gain as many as 5 seats. Meanwhile, Democrats must defend 22 of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2014, including 8 in states won by Mitt Romney in 2012 (7 of those states Romney won by a double digit margin).
