Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Looking Ahead to 2012

Happy New Year everyone! If the ancient Mayan calendar is to be believed, this will be the last year any of us ever hear that greeting again. However, between now and then, many interesting things will happen, and here are a few of them:

1. The world really won't end on December 21, 2012. Actually, I don't know that for sure. My best source on this subject says the day and hour is unknown.

2. Barack Obama will win re-election. The 2012 Presidential election should be a layup for the Republicans. Instead, the Republicans are turning the layup into a desperation heave. Look for someone to draft a "Reagan For President" campaign. However, when it is discovered that he read mainstream media publications and negotiated with Democrats, extreme conservatives will deem him too liberal and refuse to vote for him. The fact that he is dead will never be a factor in any of this.

3. Folks in Louisiana will be celebrating their two favorite football teams in January and February. LSU will beat Alabama to win the BCS Championship game, and the Saints will defeat the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, Chiefs GM Scott Pioli will determine that the Chiefs biggest need in the draft is for a backup punter. And in keeping with the "Patriots Way" he hires New England's water boy to be the Chiefs' new head coach.

4. In other sports predictions, the Miami Heat will win the NBA Championship, North Carolina will win the NCAA Championship, and the Lady Baylor Bears will win the women's NCAA Championship! President Obama will pick Kansas to win the tournament in his bracket, and when the Jayhawks are eliminated, he will blame George W Bush for his failure.

5. The economy will sputter along, with GDP growing 2% in 2012. Unemployment will inch down to 8.6%, and the S&P 500 will advance 14%. Interest rates will remain stable in the US. Nancy Pelosi will once again say unemployment checks will grow the economy.

6. As usual, I will likely be clueless on pop culture, but my girlfriend will put forth her best effort to make sure I keep up. My kids will continue to believe I'm a dork and an old man, but there will be still be plenty of times they think I'm cool.

7. My son Brent will shoot at least one round of golf in the 70's in 2012. For 18 holes. I can also shoot in the 70's but there are still 5 holes left when I do.

8. I will win at least one $100 million lottery in 2012. I will use the money to buy a spectacularly lavish house with a pool, and will live a life of splendor and luxury. Ahhhhhh, the good life...wait, is that my alarm clock going off? Is it time to get up? Was that a dream??? Nooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

9. I will write "2011" as the year on my checks for at least a month....wait, does anyone write checks anymore??

10. I will get married! (Pause...sound of girlfriend hitting the floor after fainting). Actually, this is my idea of a running joke. Someday the joke will be on me, and strange thing is, I might actually be happy about it.

Most of all, to my friends and my family and those I love: Happy 2012! May your year be filled with prosperity, health, laughter, unbridled joy, and love.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Back To Work

"Government must do all that is necessary, but no more than is necessary" Ronald Reagan, 1984 Republican National Convention


The title of this post is also the title of former President Bill Clinton's latest book. Since I am fascinated by the marriage of government and private sector economics (which makes me a first rate nerd), I thought this would make an interesting read. At the beginning of the book, the former President asks the right questions, primarily, "How do we propose to restore the American Dream at home?"(Ch. 1, p.3). I really love the bigger question that goes with it: "How do we get back in the future business?" What I most liked about this book is Mr. Clinton's focus on ideas that would actually create jobs, something sorely lacking in either political party these days. Mr. Clinton is particularly enthralled with the idea of public/private partnerships that he claims could create many jobs. Mr. Clinton does spend plenty of time in his book on partisan political jabs, but if you can read through that jibberish, he presents some solid ideas. However, my own biases would be more reflective of President Reagan's quote above, and would temper Mr. Clinton's enthusiasm for more government.


I want to focus on three areas that Mr. Clinton addresses that I believe are good ideas: cleaning up the mortgage mess, transforming the energy industry, and trade. His first idea for getting back in the future business is to clean up the mortgage mess. I could not agree more. The housing industry is essentially stagnant right now because up to 25% of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, many more are behind on their mortgages, and many others are either foreclosed or about to be foreclosed. Government agencies and GSE's should allow principal writedowns for those mortgages underwater. In normal economic times, I would disagree, but these are not normal economic times. Right now, a perfect storm exists that is slowing housing turnover to a crawl, is greatly suppressing new housing, all of which will result in lower housing values for us all. Of course, this will cost a lot of money (although Mr. Clinton says it will not). In the end, it may create more money than it costs through interest savings to consumers, a return to normal housing market activity which will help boost home values.


Mr. Clinton spends a lot of time on energy policy in this book. I completely agree with the idea of building a "smart grid" that will provide electricity more efficiently through the energy spectrum. He also advocates tax incentives to finance building retrofits so that older building can become more energy efficient. This would create jobs and help us become more energy efficeint. He also spends time talking about how the Pentagon could save millions on energy, and they will need to with inevitable budget cuts coming as we wind down wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr. Clinton also makes known his love of solar panels, windmills and other forms of "green" energy. I am also favorably inclined to green energy. I see fossil fuels as a sunset industry. However, green energy is also far from price parity with fossil fuels. Until green energy can come close to price parity, and harness energy much more efficiently, it really is not a viable alternative.


Finally, Mr. Clinton spends a great deal of time on trade. He rightly identifies the need to increase exports. But he goes much deeper than this. He calls for tax incentives to repatriate money back to the US from multinational corporations headquartered in the US. If corporations would invest money here, they would create jobs here. He also believes that enforcing trade agreements would create jobs, but points out that it is tough to enforce trade agreements with China and Japan when they are our national bankers. At the same time, we are their biggest customers, so maybe it is in their interest to live by trade agreements.


I like that Mr. Clinton has some good and thoughtful ideas. I believe that he is an underrated President, particularly given what has followed, with both Bush, Jr. and Obama. However, three criticisms of Mr. Clinton's ideas, and they relate to his partisan jabs. He is highly critical of President Reagan's tax cuts in the 1980's. Here, Mr. Clinton is not connecting all the dots, in my opinion. Mr. Reagan's tax cuts flooded the venture capital industry with money, much of which was spent on new tech start ups. I believe this helped fuel the tech boom of the 1990's that benefitted our economy greatly during Mr. Clinton's term in office. Of course, the whole "Y2K" computer conversion helped, too. I also believe that he is overlooking fossil fuels. I believe a strategy of drill now has to be a part of our overall energy production. Oil drilling creates many high paying jobs, and reduces our dependence on imported oil, much of which comes from countries that wish to do us harm. Finally, Mr. Clinton overlooks his role in the mortgage crisis that hit in the 2007-2008 time frame. In 1994, Mr. Clinton proposed amendments to the Community Reinvestment Act that mandated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase purchases of subprime mortgage securities.


I would recommend this book for those interested in the partnership/conflict between the government sector and the private sector. Overall, this is an interesting read for those who are interested in real solutions to the unemployment crisis in the US. Political bickering on both sides is not getting anything done. Both parties are "do nothings". I do not agree with all of Mr. Clinton's ideas, but he proposes some solid solutions, and he understands that the private sector has a critical role to play. I applaud his effort to look for solutions rather than just exlusively bash those with whom he disagrees. I do not agree with the idea that the government must always be at the center of every solution. As I referenced up top, the government must do what is necessary, but no more than that.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Finding The Extraordinary in Unexpected Places






Tonight, I went to the KU basketball game, and I sat next to Al Kelley, as I have done several times in the past. So, who's Al Kelley? Today, Mr. Kelley is an 80-year-old man. He's a little gaunt, a little frail, and walks a little slow. And he is still, after all these years, endlessly entertained by a basketball game. He's a first class gentleman, and has always been so friendly to me. Very pleasant to talk with. You would think that Mr. Kelley was one of those guys who wished he could have played ball with all the popular kids on the playground. Mr. Kelley is also in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame. Today, you would never know it. He does not talk about it. Never brags about how good he was back in the day. Mr. Kelley played on the Kansas team that won the 1952 NCAA Championship under Coach Phog Allen. He was also on the 1953 NCAA Runner-Up team at Kansas. Mr. Kelley was a first team all conference player in 1953 and 1954 at KU. He is in the Naismith Hall of Fame as part of the 1960 U.S. Olympic team that won the gold medal, a team that included Jerry West and Oscar Robertson. KU is justifiably proud of its winning tradition in men's basketball. It was built by players like Chamberlain, Manning, Lovellette, Collison, Valentine, JoJo White, and so many others that are too numerous to count. It was built by coaches like Phog Allen, Larry Brown, Roy Williams, Ted Owens and Bill Self. And it was built by guys like Al Kelley, if you take the time to find it all out. They say there are no heroes anymore, and this past week we have been tragically reminded of this. Maybe we just need to look a little deeper.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

The Great Awakening

There is something going on. That is what I know. I do not know exactly what it is, but something strange, and perhaps not so wonderful is going on in the U.S. The environment in this country is ripe for revolution. The United States appears to be a powder keg ready to explode right now.

Commentaries on the Occupy Wall Street protests (and the Tea Party for that matter) are missing something. One side mocks the Occupy Wall Street protestors, one side glorifies them. The reverse is true of the Tea Party. Yet there is something bigger going on that such small analysis misses. Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party are protesting different sides of the same coin. OWS is protesting the "1 percent", those who have gotten fat from Big Business. The Tea Party is protesting Big Government. I believe that Big Business, Big Government, Big Labor, and to a large extent, Big Media have been in an unholy alliance of greed and hubris. Finally, the excess greed is catching up to all of them.

Executive compensation has been out of touch with reality for the better part of the last twenty years. There seems to be very little accountability on the part of corporate boards of directors to reign in executive compensation, even during this difficult economic period. This is especially true on Wall Street, where taxpayers were called upon to bail out bank after bank that took The System down. Within two years of the bailouts, Wall Street securities firms were posting record profits and handing out bonuses deemed obscene by many who were struggling to find work or make ends meet. Their tax dollars went to line the pockets of the fat cats in the most unholy of alliances between government and business. So the "1%" live as high as ever on the hog while the rest of us fight for scraps. Is it any wonder that this type of largess has drawn protests?

Now, do not misunderstand me. I do believe that executives should earn more than entry level, clerical type workers. I applaud those who risk their capital and earn a fair profit. And if consumers are willing to pay premium prices for certain products (i.e. Apple products), then God bless that company. And I do not mind an executive has earned a large compensation, including bonuses. But too often, executive compensation is disconnected from reality. Executives too often have been paid fat bonuses in the face of declining sales and declining profits (or even losses). It is easy for the masses to become disillusioned when the company's fortunes are declining, workers are being asked to take pay cuts or are laid off, and the executives are earning ever higher amounts of money.

Meanwhile, the Tea Party protests a government that has clearly grown too big. The government is now running $1.5 trillion annual budget deficits and has a national debt equal to our annual GDP. Until the Tea Party came along there was no action by either party in Washington to do anything about it, other than kick it down the road. The Tea Party to its credit understands that there is a fundamental entitlement mentality among the politicians in Washington that is bankrupting our country. Yet until they awoke the politicians, they were all for living off the fat of taxpayer money, being completely oblivious to taxpayer anger over irresponsible spending. Is it any wonder CNBC commentator Rick Santelli ranted on TV and got the Tea Party started. If it wasn't him, it would have been someone else.

With the $1.5 trillion budget deficits projected as far as the eye can see, interest expense to service the debt will become an ever larger piece of the federal government's budget. Even with record low interest rates, this component is one of the largest parts of the budget. What happens if short-term interest rates go to 3%? Interest expense will explode and we will be looking at the budget deficit increasing by hundreds of millions of dollars each year simply due to a movement in interest rates. On top of that, the latest CBO estimate is that the new health care law will increase the budget deficit by $540 billion in the first 10 years of the law's existence. Remember when we were told that it would cut the deficit by $138 billion during the first ten years? Not going to happen. Remember all the back room deals made to pass the bill? Is it any wonder that people rose up and protested a government that was too big and too arrogant?

What this all amounts to is a Great Awakening by ordinary citizens of this country. The politicians either ignore or mock the protestors at their own peril. The Tea Party needs to understand that in the end, the OWS crowd is their friend and vice versa. If the 1% and the government are truly responsive to the protestors, then we will wind up with a more accountable Corporate America which will help facilitate a more limited government. If Big Government and Big Business take on a "let them eat cake" mentality (which both seem to be carrying at the moment), then this thing will end very very badly. Revolutions never end well for those in power, and right now, those in power are sitting on a powder keg that is ready to explode.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Did Baylor Do The Right Thing?

Last week, Texas A&M University announced its intention to leave the Big 12 Conference and earlier this week announced its intention to join the Southeastern Conference. After the A&M's SEC bid was announced, Baylor filed a lawsuit blocking A&M's move to the SEC.

Did Baylor do the right thing? In the short run, yes (perhaps), but in the long run no. Baylor's move obviously is an effort to keep the Big 12 together. Last weekend, Oklahoma announced that it is looking at its options in terms of moving to another conference. It is being widely reported that OU will join the Pacific 12 Conference, and take Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech with it. What does mean for Baylor? Obviously, it would mean the end of any affiliation within a BCS conference. Baylor has enjoyed its status as "BCS" school and benefitted greatly, particularly financially. The Big 12/BCS affiliation has led to a big upgrade in football facilities and new facilities for numerous other sports, most notably baseball.

Baylor is behaving like a cornered animal. With all the talk of conference realignment, Baylor has been left out. Other major BCS conferences do not perceive that Baylor brings them any benefit, so BU is left out in the cold (a rather odd word choice to describe anything in Texas these days). So Baylor is taking any and all steps it can at this time to preserve its status as an affiliate of a major conference. Really, what other choice does Baylor have? So it fights with the only weapon it has at its disposal. The loss of BCS status would greatly affect Baylor's athletic revenue, and likely hurt its overall General Fund revenue as well.

How did it get so bad? There are two reasons for this: The University of Texas and Dan Beebe. Texas is perhaps the most arrogant university in the country and certainly the most destructive university, at least when it comes to athletics. Meanwhile, Dan Beebe's lack of leadership and vision, combined with his complete ass-kissing of Texas is simply appalling. Seriously, what other conference has the problems the Big 12 has? You don't see Ohio State strong arming the rest of the Big 10. You don't see Florida strong arming the rest of the SEC. Where else are schools in major BCS conferences desperately looking to leave?

As soon as the ink dried last summer to save the Big 12 as a 10 team conference, A&M went shopping. The Longhorn Network was a bone of contention, as this would result in UT realizing $300 million in revenue over the next 20 years. No one else had anything like this, and Comissioner Beebe simply allowed this to happen in order to save the Big 12. Does Ohio State have its own network? Or does Florida have its own? No, there is an SEC network and a Big 10 network and these conferences share equally. Ohio State gets the same money as Northwestern in the Big 10 network. Major network TV contracts are shared equally in all other conferences. Yet Texas is allowed to keep a larger share of the network TV contracts than the other schools in this conference. No wonder Colorado and Nebraska left!

For a school like Baylor, there is no choice but to go along with the unfair arrangement. For a Texas A&M, there are other options. They were smart to recognize that a better option existed and they jumped. I do not blame them. The University of Texas, with the blessing of Dan Beebe, destroyed the Big 12. The problems go way back to the founding of the Big 12 in the mid 1990's and never got better. Texas has always enjoyed being the "big fish in the small pond" and does not seem to play well with others.

Where does Baylor go from here? Filing the lawsuit was a long-term death sentence. I do not believe it will stop A&M from going to the SEC, nor will it stop the others from leaving for greener pastures. Of the current Big 12 schools, I can say with 100% certainty that Baylor and Iowa State will not end up in BCS conferences. Kansas State does not appear likely to either and Kansas hangs in the balance, but might be saved by its basketball program. Baylor might not end up in any conference because of the lawsuit. Baylor now is known as someone who does not play nice and throws a tantrum when it does not get its way. The politicians will not demand that Texas let Baylor tag along like they did in the formation of the Big 12. This means that in the short run, Baylor's lawsuit might preserve the Big 12 for another year. Long run, it might cripple the athletic program. Makes me sad for Baylor. The University is between a rock and a hard place.

Finally, why in the hell does Dan Beebe still have a job? Seriously? He completely lacks vision, is completely reactionary, and just basically does the bidding of Texas. When rumors that A&M was going to leave first surfaced, officials at Texas were quoted as saying they were making a list of possible replacements. That's Mr. Beebe's job! Where the hell is he? Why is everyone looking to bolt this league? Lack of leadership at the top! No one is looking to leave the Big 10, the Pac 12 or the SEC. In fact, Big 12 schools are begging to join these leagues! Dan Beebe needs to leave town ASAP and never show his face again. He has taken what should be a great league, a league that has been extremely competitive on the field, and driven it into near extinction (and that is only a matter of time). Hey Dan, I hope Bevo's ass tastes good!

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Reflections of September 11 - Ten Years Later

Sunday marks the 10th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, and I cannot help but reflect on such a tragic, surreal day. I remember my day, which now seems so absurd. And I reflect on the courage of heroism of so many who helped save countless numbers of lives.

I am sure we all remember where we were when we first heard the news. I was sitting in my car at the intersection of 79th Street and Metcalf, waiting for the light to turn green. The DJ on the radio reported that a plane had struck one of the World Trade Center buildings in New York. I figured it was just a prop plane, piloted by an inexperienced pilot who did not know what he was doing. The clock in my car said 7:56, so this was approximately 10 minutes after the first plane struck. A few minutes later, someone in the office reported that a second plane had struck the second tower. I knew at that point that it was intentional.

My job at the time entailed traveling downtown for Tuesday morning investment meetings, so I headed down shortly, and on my way in, the news on the radio reported that a plane crashed into the Pentagon in Washington DC. This was unreal. Finally, I don't when, but I heard about the plane crash in Pennsylvania. This was becoming a blur. Shortly after arriving in downtown Kansas City, I saw the headline flash across a Bloomberg screen that the FAA grounded all flights and ordered all planes to land immediately. The investment meeting was canceled and I was told to get back to my office and call clients.

Those were the oddest calls I ever made. There was no script, and I barely had a clue as to what to say. My bosses barely had a clue. No one had ever seen anything like this before. I spent my day reassuring customers that the financial system was still sound and that their money was safe. Paled in comparison to the tragedy unfolding. First call I made, the client told me that we were at war. With whom I asked. Whoever attacked us! I remember a call I made to a client around 1:30pm. I went through my pitch, then he said to me, "Chuck I have no idea what you're talking about." He had not heard the news yet. The story I told had to sound so unbelievable that he probably thought I had lost my mind. How could the events of that day possibly be real?

In the end, it was a day that showed the best and worst of humanity. We saw the worst that day. What emerged later was the best. Watching a special the other night that spotlighted two heroes, among many that day, Frank DiMartini and Pablo Ortiz. They rescued people from the 88th, 89th and 90th floors of the North Tower and got them out before the building collapsed, yet they died when the building collapsed. More than 300 New York firefighters died as they attempted to rescue people caught in the buildings. In all, approximately 3,000 people died that day as a result of the terrorist attacks. Yet, as we reflect on that day, I choose to remember the heroes, the people who died while saving others. The firefighters and police officers who were doing their duty when it all caved in on them.

For once, on that day and the several days that followed, we were all Americans. Just Americans. In fact, the whole civilized world became Americans that day. Ultimately we learned that America isn't about monuments or buildings. It is about freedom. And we learned that freedom is not free. Sometimes we pay a dear price for our freedom. But I love that America is about an idea. That the spirit of the people can be bent, but not broken. That the greatness of America lies in its people. Its resilient, ever optimistic people, people with a can-do spirit. The terrorists destroyed two buildings, and yes, they massacred unbelievable amounts of people. People whose lives will never be the same. But they did not destroy the spirit of any of them. All 3,000 people who died that day died as heroes. They did not die in vain. The terrorists died as cowards. As I look back, ten years later, the truth rings out: The Heroes Won.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

It's The End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)...

"You must be ready because the Son of Man will come at an hour when you do not expect him." Luke 12:40


These words of Jesus noted above in the Gospel of Luke have drawn attention lately thanks to the musings of Harold Camping, a founder of Family Radio, a non-commercial Christian broadcasting network. He has prophecied (is that a word?) that the Second Coming of Jesus will occur today, May 21. Thanks largely to the verse above, I do not believe him. And his prediction has come under scrutnity, been the butt of jokes, and even inspired such things as "post-Rapture looting parties."


But what if one takes a different approach? If the Second Coming were to occur today, would you be ready? What would you change about your life, if anything? Use this as an opportunity to do good in the world and serve mankind. Take time to laugh more (I could certainly use my own advice here!). Enjoy life more! Create a "bucket list" and go do it. Once again, I need to follow my own advice. Now to go make that bucket list...

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Haunting Words

"At the sixth hour darkness came over the whole land until the ninth hour. And at the ninth hour Jesus cried out in a loud voice, "Eloi, Eloi, lama sabachthani?" - which means, "My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?" Mark 15:33-35


I have just celebrated Easter service as I write this. The music this morning may have been the best I've ever heard at COR (or any other church for that matter). Very uplifting and inspiring. The sermon was really good. Yet the verse written above has haunted me all week. I have been haunted because I have been feeling the words of Jesus on the cross this week. The pastor of my church, Adam Hamilton, preached a sermon on these very words several weeks ago, noting with amazement that even Jesus, the Son of God, felt abandoned by God in his hour of greatest need. I write this today not to impart some great wisdom, but to seek answers.


I know why I am feeling forsaken by God. This week, I will celebrate my 20th wedding anniversary - alone. The great joy of such an occasion should not be overwhelmed with sadness. There are other things going on in my life that also lead to my feelings. The apostle Paul, writing in 1 Thessolonians reminded me that I should give thanks in all situations because this is God's will for me in Christ Jesus (1 Thess. 5:18). Yet I cannot help but feel differently. On top of that, Mother's Day is right around the corner. Oh joy. Easily the emptiest day of the year in our house. A day that only serves to remind my two sons how unfair life has been to them. Meanwhile, I read Genesis 2:18 (It is not good for the man to be alone. I will make a helper suitable for him, said God) and I wonder "where is God and where is my suitable helper?"


Do I worship a God that abandons His followers at their hour of greatest need? Jesus himself felt abandoned by God while on the cross! I find myself feeling that way now as I approach a very difficult time of the year. I have prayed with more intensity than ever these past few months, and I can see that some prayers have been answered, others have not. I have lashed out in anger at God, out of frustration. I want some reassurance that He is there, and that He is listening. I want some reassurance that He is hearing my prayers. Right now, it does not feel that way. I know my faith has been bent, contorted and twisted in all kinds of ways these past several years. That faith is being severely tested again. When do I come through this storm?


The words of Jesus on the cross come from Psalm 22:1. David writes this as an ultimate praise of a Lord who delivers him from his enemies and predators. At this point, when do I come out the other side, having been delivered from my demons and frustrations?