First Thoughts on 2016 Presidential Election

First Thoughts On 2016 Presidential Election


As we look forward to 2016, one of the biggest events in the next year will be the Presidential election in the U.S.  I've assembled a few initial thoughts about this race, primarily in order to keep the idiot class (ie. pundits) from dictating my thinking.  This election will be vitally important largely because the world is a much more dangerous place than at any time since 1980.  The world is largely leaderless, and dangerous forces are moving in to fill the vacuum.  Nuclear proliferation is on the rise.  So is Jihadism.  Our allies no longer trust us and our enemies no longer respect us.  Our economy muddles along at best.  With that backdrop, here are some of my collected thoughts:


1.  Republicans are stupid.  So are Democrats.  So are conservatives and liberals.  All are equally stupid and all are equally corrupt.


2.  Our next President will be a war time leader.  We can no longer hide the fact that there is a faction of Islam that is at war with us.  And has been for 20 years.  It's time to stop burying our heads in the sand regarding this issue.


3.  Donald Trump is so far the 800 lb gorilla in this race.  He says stupid, offensive, horrible things.  So, why do people like him?  I have several theories:  1.  He talks about making America great again.  Most people intuitively have the sense that we have lost our greatness.  He tells us that America no longer wins.  Quite frankly, this is a very believable narrative.  2.  He projects power and lots of it.  For all his flaws, Trump has a larger than life personality.  3.  People sense that Trump will garner international respect.  I'm not sure if this is actually true.  He has obviously caught the attention of Vladimir Putin.  Putin, as I see it, respects those who project power, and walks all over those who don't.  He respects Trump and walks all over Obama.


4.  Reaccelerating economic growth needs to be a top priority for the next President.  Between 1947-2000, average GDP growth in this country was 3.5%.  We have topped that only once in the last 15 years, in 2004. During the current economic recovery, GDP growth has averaged 2.2%.  Wages are stagnant to down and the labor force participation rate is at a 40-year low.  In other words, our economy basically sucks.  No wonder this doesn't feel like a recovery to most people.  And there are voice in this campaign that are already saying this is the best that we can do. I utterly reject that.  I know we can do better and I want a President who knows we can do better.


5.  We need a leader who will honor the work ethic.  We currently have an entitlement culture that I find rather baffling. We have a nation of people today who think they are entitled to all the luxuries of this life simply because they are.  Hey, how about you go work for it and earn it?  This entitlement mentality needs to go.


6. We need leaders who stop disparaging success.  All we hear is how successful people are corrupt, that they are basically thieves.  We need to celebrate success in the economy to help generate more of it.  Painting all "rich people" as corrupt is also insulting.  It tells us to believe the worst in people.  Indeed there are plenty of corrupt rich people.  But there are plenty who do wonderful things with their money, whether it is to help those in need, or invest in the betterment of our communities or in successful companies that create jobs. 


7. We need leaders who will honor and lift up our free enterprise system instead of tearing it down.  For all its flaws, capitalism is the best economic system of all time.  It has created more wealth than any other system in history and created a higher standard of living than any other system ever.  We need to lift up our innovators and our entrepreneurs, not stifle them. 


8.  The biggest barrier to entry for many people today is an abundance of regulations that keep entrenched competitors firmly in place while keeping new entrants out.  Regulation increases the cost of doing business, which is a nuisance to large, established competitors and a killer to newer and smaller businesses.  In the last 7 years, we have been inundated with harmful regulations in finance, health care, communications and energy.


9.  The United States has zero credibility in the Middle East these days, and not much more in other places around the world.  The next President will have a tremendous re-building job ahead of him, especially with Israel and our Arab allies in the Middle East.


10.  Our #1 long-term enemy in the Middle East is Iran.  We keep being told that the Iranian people want to embrace our Western values.  That is likely true.  However, the mullahs in Iran rule with an iron fist and they have no interest in establishing any sort of friendship with us.  We had our chance with all the protests in 2009, and we did nothing.  Remind me again why we are paving their road to a nuclear bomb?


11.  ISIS must be defeated.  The wholesale slaughter they are performing on "infidels" is appalling.  And the young women forced in sex slavery is sickening.  Their celebration of different, yet unbelievably cruel ways of putting people to death makes me want to vomit.  This is basically a death and rape cult.  They are also a different kind of terrorist organization.  They have a sustainable source of revenue in the form of oil sales.  ISIS derives an estimated $500 - $700 million annually from the sale of oil.


12.  We need to find our friends who are fighting ISIS and arm them.  Why aren't we befriending the Kurds and arming them?  These guys are tough, they fight, and they have had some success in fighting ISIS.  Carpet bombing ISIS is a hopelessly flawed strategy.  We need "boots on the ground" in this fight.  Again, why can't the Kurds be our boots on the ground? 


13.  Deporting all illegal immigrants is hopelessly unrealistic.  However, in this Age of Terror, we need to take all steps to secure our borders.  The first job of the President is to keep the citizens safe. 


14.  Russia will be a problem, too.  Vladimir Putin respects America's power, so he will not directly go after us.  But we need a leader that he respects, too.  We need to arm the rebels in the Ukraine that are fighting the Russian military presence there. 


15.  Most of all, this election will be about leadership.  We need a leader who is in engaged, one who is in touch with the concerns of average Americans.  We need a leader who truly understands that the best leaders are a servant, not a master.  We need a President who will lead the world when called upon to do so.  We need a leader who has enough trust in the people to unleash their creative genius, not cage it.


16.  Economic growth is hard work, and does not have a simple government solution.  We need a government that will let go of its power in order to create that growth.  This is where leadership comes in.  Entrepreneurship is dying in this country.  We need more innovation, we need new companies that can succeed and bring fresh perspectives to the market place.  We need a government that will trust its citizens.  This is what will spread the wealth around, this is what creates good jobs at good wages, and this is what trickle down economics is all about.


17.  We need a President that believes in us.  That believes in the good that we can do.  And will lead us down that path.  I personally am sick of being lectured to by this President.  I want a President who believes in America, in the American dream, and will lead us back down that path.  One who believes that we can do better, and is relentlessly optimistic about America, and truly believes our best days are still ahead of us.


I am sure I will have more as time goes on.  This is all I have for now.

The Greatness of Teams

Anyone who has known me well for very long knows that I may be a bit of a sports nut.  Loved them as a kid, and still do.  Team sports were my favorite, and even today the whole dynamic of teams is still fascinating to me.  I love to look at what makes a particular team great, and would ideally like to be a part of an organization that "wins it all."  I love the concept of synergy that teams create.  That idea that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  I particularly enjoy seeing a group of individuals working together to achieve a goal that none of them could achieve on their own.  This past baseball team, I got to see such a team - the 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals.  Each team has its own internal dynamics that make it unique.  This team offered up some lessons that each of us could use to make us better individuals and make the organizations we were work for achieve more than anyone thought possible.


Those of you who followed this team know the story.  This team was behind by multiple runs late in the game of many of its post season games.  Time and time again, they refused to give up and found ways to win.  This team set a record by winning seven post season games after trailing by two runs or more at some point during their sixteen post season games.  The Royals scored 40 runs from the eighth inning on during the post season.  The next closest team scored five.  The Royals had many good players, but no real superstars.  Many might find it odd that a team with no real stars could win.  So, what made them so great?  I will offer three things that I found in this team that made it unique and great.  These three lessons can help us as individuals and organizations.


Relentlessness
The one word I would use to describe this Royals team is relentless.  Babe Ruth once said, "You just can't beat the person who never gives up."  And this team would simply never give up.  The Royals set a baseball record by coming back to win seven games during the post-season in which they trailed by at least 2 runs at some point in the game.  Most teams would consider one such victory to be a defining moment for them.  This team did it seven times!  Who could forget the way this team came up with two runs in the top of the ninth inning in Game 5 versus the Mets to extend that game?  It was the mentality of attack, attack, attack.  That is what this team did, they would keep coming after you, they dared you to step up and make the play.


Joy
Most books on the subject of greatness will not mention joy.  But this was a characteristic of this team.  Hey, they are being paid millions of dollars to play a kid's game, they should be joyful!  True, but how many people display such joy?  The joy this team exhibited was best displayed by catcher Salvador Perez.  He played every game like he was having the time of his life.  Try doing that while wearing catcher's gear and you are catching your sixth game this week with temperatures in the high 90's, high humidity, and you are taking a dozen foul balls off various body parts each game.  Teams that continue to thoroughly enjoy what they do, even during the most adverse circumstances, will likely experience a great deal of success.


Every Player Played His Part
The phrase used over and over was "keep the line moving."  Just do your part, that is all you had to do.  This was particularly true when the Royals were at bat.  I had an old little league baseball coach who drilled into us that "when you are at bat, the objective is to get on base."  You did not need to hit a home run every time.  Just get on base, then let the next guy get on base.  Keep the line moving.


While there were other factors, these were the main things that stood out about this team.  These are just a few of the characteristics that made this team great.  Each team is different, and has its own dynamic.  All successful teams need good leadership, and leaders with a clear vision.  This team had that.  I do find it interesting that this team had no superstars.  The Royals showed you do not need superstars, and their often over-inflated egos.  Sacrificing the individual glory for the good of the team brought each individual more glory than any of them could ever imagine achieving on his own. 


Chuck Heath

Fathers And Sons

"Until you have a son of your own...you will never know the joy, the love beyond feeling that resonates in the heart of a father as he looks upon his son" Kent Nerburn, author

Yesterday was one of those days that truly filled my soul like no other.  Certainly, it was a busy day, filled with very enjoyable activities.  The morning was filled with a trip to Lawrence, Kan. to visit my oldest son at the University of Kansas.  We visited his fraternity's tailgate before the Kansas vs Texas Tech football game, and got a chance to visit with some of his fraternity brothers.  I am certainly very happy for him as he has found a great group of young men to associate with.  However, we did not stay for the game, as it was back to Kansas City to pick up my younger son and head off to Kauffman Stadium for Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.  The hometown Kansas City Royals rallied from a 3-0 deficit to post an impressive 6-3 victory! Finally, it was out to dinner after the game.

What made this day special for me was sharing it with my sons, especially the baseball game.  I wrote last week about a very special memory from my own past about a baseball game.  That memory was made possible by my Dad who was able to procure tickets to the game, and with whom I attended the game.  That meant the world to me, both as a young man and a father to two young men.  I knew I could not promise them such a special memory, but I knew I at least had to try!  And to see the joy on their faces as the Royals rallied for the victory was something I will never forget.  And to share our thoughts over dinner just put the cherry on top of an already wonderful day.  And the quote at the top came to life for me.

There is something truly unique about a father sharing his passions in life with his son(s).  In our house, it is sports.  For others, it may a passion for hunting, fishing, woodworking, music, or any number of other talents.  At the same time, few things in life bring as much joy as a father watching his son develop his own talents and passions in life.  I loved watching both boys play sports growing up, and I still get to see my younger son as he finishes his high school football days.  Of course, there are many frustrations and aggravations along the way.  Today, I simply choose to dwell on the joy my sons have brought into my life and what a blessing they are to me.


These days, I listen to my older son, when I get the chance, talk about his experiences at KU.  I realize he is a man now, learning to independently make his way in the world.  And I beam with pride and take great joy in his lessons and experiences.  I know that he will experience all the downs that life has to offer, but I also know that will experience great joy himself and learn to walk tall among men.  And my younger son is on the threshold of all this himself.  And I will take equal pride in his accomplishments as well.  And as a father, when I gaze upon my sons, I will take great joy and be overwhelmed with great love for these two young men.  They will truly fill my soul.

To the fathers who have only daughters, I would say the same thing.  Treasure all the beautiful joys and blessings your daughter has brought to your life.  For whether you have sons or daughters - or both - if you teach them well and spend time with them, they will fill your soul like no other.

Memories of Toronto Vs. Kansas City

"Best game I ever played in my life."  George Brett, as quoted in the Kansas City Star, October 15, 2015

Tomorrow, the Toronto Blue Jays play the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium.  The Blue Jays and the Royals met in a classic championship series in 1985.  The quote above by Royals Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett refers to Game 3 of that series.

I was a spectator at that game, and I can tell you that you will get no argument from me regarding that quote.  It was a Hall of Fame performance from a Hall of Fame player.  Brett's line that night was as follows:  4 hits in 4 at bats, 4 runs scored, 2 home runs, 3 runs batted in.  Aside from Brett, this was also the best baseball game I have ever seen, and quite likely the best game I have ever seen in any sport.  I remember the pitching match-up that night was Doyle Alexander for Toronto and Cy Young winner Bret Saberhagen for the Royals.

Brett began in the first with a home run down the right field line that curled inside the foul pole to give the Royals a 1-0 lead.  The Royals stretched the lead to 2-0 in the fourth inning when Brett doubled high off the wall in right field, a hit that I thought for sure was a home run.  What followed next was nothing short of incredible as Hal McRae and Frank White each hit shots into the gap in right center field that I knew would be extra base hits.  However, Toronto right fielder Jesse Barfield made lunging catches on both line drives.  Brett tagged up on each, scoring on White's liner to make the score 2-0.  I cannot over emphasize how incredible those catches by Barfield really were.  On both of those shots, I was wondering if McRae and White had enough in them to leg out triples.  There was no doubt in my mind that each line drive would find the gap.

The wheels came off in the top of the 5th inning for Bret Saberhagen, as the Blue Jays scored 5 runs to take a seemingly commanding 5-2 lead.  Saberhagen was done and Steve Farr was brought in to relieve him.  Farr would retire every batter he faced, 13 in a row.  In the bottom of the 5th inning, catcher Jim Sundberg hit a home run for the Royals to make the score 5-3 Toronto.

Fortunately, Brett was not done.  The Royals got their lead-off batter on in the sixth inning and up stepped Brett who could tie the game with one swing of the bat.  I remember he took a vicious swing at a pitch and fouled it straight back, just barely missing it.  At this point, the Royals were looking at a 3-0 deficit in the series (Toronto had won the first two games in Toronto).  No team in any sport had ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best of 7 game series.  The Royals season depended on this one at bat.

I believe the count was 2-1 when Brett hit a fly ball to left center field.  Royals Stadium is a big ballpark, and hitting an opposite field home run there is next to impossible, especially to the gap where Brett hit the ball.  Dammit George, I thought to myself.  Can of corn to left field.  As a passionate 18 year-old fan who had lived and died many summers and autumns with the Royals, I felt as if I had died again.  I did not want to believe the screaming fans who I thought were disillusioned.  And I most definitely did not want to see George Bell, the Toronto left fielder, camp under the ball and make the catch.  I could not bear to watch that.  Simply way too heartbreaking.

I watched the flight of the ball.  It was all I could do.  So from my lower level seat I looked up at the white ball against the black sky.  And it went up and up, then seemingly hung in the air forever.  As long as the ball stayed in the air, I would be ok.  Then, inevitably, the ball started its descent into what I believed would be the waiting glove of George Bell.  That is certainly what I expected to see.  The ball continued to come down, finally to the point where I could see the ball, and experience a feeling of total disbelief.  My eye caught both the ball and two Toronto outfielders - George Bell and centerfielder Lloyd Moseby - and they were both at the wall!  Oh no, do not tease me like this!  The continued to come down, and neither fielder reached up to catch the ball.  Finally, the ball disappeared on the other side of the fence.  Home run!  Game tied at 5!

Pure pandemonium, unbridled joy! Royals Stadium erupted.  I have never heard Royals Stadium so loud in all my life.  Strangers were high fiving each other and hugging each other.  We were all jumping up and down and screaming.  It was more than a home run, it was a lifeline to a team and a crowd that was waiting to explode like this.  And we screamed and hugged some more, and we made noise like none that had ever been heard at Royals Stadium before.  And we continued to scream and high five each other.  We knew we had seen something special. 

At this point, it is almost anticlimactic to point out that Brett came up again in the 8th inning, and singled to right field.  He came around to score what would be the winning run in a 6-5 Royals win.  Why Toronto manager Bobby Cox ever let Doyle Alexander pitch to Brett in the 6th inning, I will never know.  But I will be eternally grateful for it.  And that is my Blue Jays vs Royals ALCS memory.

For another article about this game, go here.



Reflecting On Great Advice

 The Lord says: “These people come near to me with their mouth and honor me with their lips, but their hearts are far from me.  Their worship of me is based on merely human rules they have been taught.¹⁴ Therefore once more I will astound these people with wonder upon wonder; the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish.” - Isaiah 29:13-14

I was thinking about some of the best advice I ever received - separately - from two men I worked with back in 1993 after I had been promoted to an Equity Analyst job.  Taken together, these two bits of advice have served me very well, and I find that when I have followed these pieces of advice, they have served me very well.  These two men were former bosses of mine:  the late Dave Anderson and Howard Jacobson.

The first thing Dave told me after I became an analyst was never take anything the Wall Street guys said at face value.  We did rely a lot on their research, but their recommendations had ulterior motives, and their supporting thesis always  was geared to support their recommendations and was not always to be trusted.  Howard told me to pay particular attention to those who said "Buy" when all others said "Sell" and pay attention to those who said "Sell" when all others said "Buy".  Combine these two sentiments and you avoid the madness of crowds.

At the time I didn't fully appreciate the wisdom of the advice.  But it is some of the most sound advice I have ever heard.  I am beginning to take on curmudgeon qualities because of this advice and I rather like it.  When I have followed this advice in virtually all aspects of life, it has served me well.  I have learned that life is not really lived following the conventional wisdom or the latest trends.  I have found that following the wisdom of the wise leads to maddening crowds, while the most interesting people following their own path.  They have chartered their own course to excellence, they have maintained their own standards as others have compromised theirs.  What I have ultimately found is that those who avoid the maddening crowds have generally achieved the greatest inner peace.


So, what is wrong with following the "wisdom of the wise"?  I will not tell you to never follow it.  I will tell you to question it first, and not follow it blindly.  Know who you are, your "true north" first.  Use your critical thinking skills.  Learn to ask yourself what assumptions come with the conclusions.  What viewpoint does the author or authors bring?  Where do you agree, where do you disagree?  You do not always have to be the contrarian, but when you find yourself swimming in the madness of a crowd and following the wisdom of the wise, question everything just a little bit harder.

The lesson for me is that my natural Midwestern skepticism is truly a gift from God.  Much of that skepticism is simply common sense.  People with fancy educations and big shot job titles do not impress me.  Bottom line results do.  Those who achieve have found their peace and are comfortable with who they are.  We are given brains that are capable of critical thought.  Question everything the experts say.  Follow your own course.  Do not believe everything you read (except what I write, of course!).  Never trust anyone who says "trust me."  Use what God gave you, apply a sack full of common sense, and that will lead to sound judgment, inner peace and a lifetime of happiness.