March Madness

It's Selection Sunday as I write this, the day the NCAA men's basketball tournament field is announced. I love filling out my bracket after the field has been announced. Something about matching wits with other "experts" in the field, whether they are co-workers, family members or the million who will play the ESPN Bracket Challenge for an opportunity to win $1 million that brings out the competitive juices in me (and apparently, many others). However, by the end of that first weekend, my bracket has been shredded by the on-court results (I am usually good for about 20-22 correct calls out of 32 first round games), and I can just enjoy the rest of tournament. But it sure is fun to fill out that bracket. I do believe there some simple rules to follow to fill out a successful bracket.

Calling the Upsets
Predicting the first round upset is the most enjoyable, and challenging, part of filling out the bracket. Upsets happen every year, but correctly calling the upsets is quite difficult. First, the easy rule to follow: Do not ever pick a #16 seed to defeat a #1 seed. It has never happened. In the 27 previous tournaments with the modern format, the #1 seed is 108-0 against the #16 seed. Do not count on it happening anytime soon. Next, do not pick the #15 seed to beat the #2 seed. In the modern format, this has happened 4 times, none since 2001. Do not count on it happening again. The most common upset usually occurs in the 5-12 first round match-up. Why? This match-up usually matches a low ranking member of a power conference (the #12 seed) against a mid major or against a team that posted a glossy record in an overrated power conference. Look for your opportunities here. Other upsets occur when an underrated mid major team is playing against an overrated power conference team. In any event, do not predict your first round upsets to win in the second round. This could save your bracket.

Who Do You Pick To Go Deep?
This is always a dilemma because some highly ranked teams inevitably fall early in the tournament and picking which ones will survive can be tricky. Here, you have to look at coaches. Some coaches seem to do very well no matter what while others have consistently disappointed. In this day and age, the coaches who regularly perform well in the tournament are Coach K at Duke (11 Final Fours), Roy Williams at North Carolina (7 Final Fours), Tom Izzo at Michigan State (6 Final Fours) and Rick Pitino at Louisville (5 Final Fours). For my money, Izzo is the best tournament coach in the field. At a minimum, you are safe to pick these coaches teams to "play to their seed". All coaches have their tournament disappointments, but these coaches are not likely to ruin your brackets with early round defeats. Coaches who have consistently disappointed are Bill Self at Kansas, Fran Dunphy at Temple and Tom Crean at Indiana. I would not pick these guys to go deep into the tournament.

The next factor to look at is experience. Teams that are junior and senior dominated tend to go farther than freshman and sophomore laden teams. When looking particularly at the mid majors, those with lots of experience can win games and go deep in tournament. Another factor that play into a deep tournament run is the strength of a team's guard play. A strong point guard can control the tempo of the game and will always get the ball into the hands of his teams best scorers at crunch time. As I look at the 2012 tournament, I believe that strong guard play and experience can take a team like Missouri far into the tournament while weak guard play can leave a team like Kansas vulnerable to an early round upset. Experience could work against a team like Kentucky, but help a team like Syracuse.

Sizing Up 2012
Overall, the top two teams are Kentucky and Syracuse. I do not see any noticeable differences between the two. Syracuse has more experience, but Kentucky has more talent and they have a coach who has been to two Final Fours. What are some of the possible upsets in the first round? Well since I spotlighted the 5-12 match up, I really like Long Beach State to beat New Mexico. Other possible upsets include NC State over San Diego State. If California makes it past South Florida, then I could see Cal beating Temple (another 5-12 match up). Another underdog that no one on TV is talking about is St. Mary's, which I think could give Kansas a lot of trouble in the second round. South Dakota State will give Baylor trouble in their match up, but I think BU pulls out an ugly win. Of the Big 12 teams, Missouri will go the farthest in this tournament. I think the Tigers will meet their match in Michigan State. As I said earlier, Tom Izzo is the best tournament coach out there right now.

In the end, the Final Four could be like 2008, with all four #1's making the Final Four. Back in December, I predicted that North Carolina would win it all. I have changed my mind. In the end, Syracuse will be cutting down the nets in New Orleans.