We Hired Who Texas Thinks They Hired

The title of this article comes from a character who calls himself Tiny Mack Rhoads, and I love the sentiment expressed in it.  Tiny Mack Rhoads tweeted this out after the hire of Matt Rhule as Baylor’s new football coach was announced today.  This particular Twitter account is a parody account, but he/she is obviously a Baylor fan, as anyone who has followed this account can attest.  While the Texas Longhorns think they hired the best coach out of the American Athletic Conference, truth is that Baylor might have done the trick instead with their hire of Matt Rhule from Temple. As a Baylor alum, I am glad that we have hired a new football coach and that we now have the opportunity to move forward.  On an even better note, I think Baylor has hired one hell of a football coach!  Is it the perfect hire?  No, there are some notable flaws in the resume.  But the perfect hire was not going to happen with Baylor at this time.

For a little perspective on the wisdom of this hire, I turned to the sports betting books in Las Vegas.  While this seems odd, especially for a Baptist university that “officially” eschews gambling, it offers quite a bit that tells me that Coach Rhule could be (and I think will be) successful at Baylor.  During the 2016 football season, Temple was 9-3 vs the spread.  This means that regardless of where the Vegas sportsbooks set the line for the Temple games this season, Temple beat the spread 75% of the time.  When Temple was favored, they won by more than the spread.  When they were the underdogs, they either lost by less than expected, or they won outright.  In their most recent game, Temple was a 3 point underdog to Navy, and the Owls won the game outright by 24 points.  What does this tell me?  It tells me two things about Matt Rhule as a football coach:

1.      He got more out of his players than conventional statistical analysis suggested he could, meaning they played sound, fundamental football

2.      His teams clearly exceeded expectations, which can only be achieved by playing as a cohesive unit

3.      Exceeding expectations, when you are coming off a 10 win season, is difficult.  Coach Rhule did it.

For comparison purposes, Baylor was 3-8 vs the spread this season.  Baylor clearly needs a coach that can inspire the available talent and lift the overall play higher.

Baylor Head Coach Matt Rhule

That’s a good start, but the task of building a winner at Baylor is monumental.  Then again, the task facing Rhule when he came on board at Temple was also monumental and he turned that program around from one that won 1 game the season before he was hired to one that enjoyed back-to-back 10 win seasons within four years.

All new coaches face the task of hiring a staff, and establishing recruiting, so from this point Baylor is no different than anyone else.  In fact, Baylor may be coming into this in a bit of a sweet spot given that the other schools in Texas all have their issues.  That means that outside schools will have an easier time of it within Texas as well.  Coach Rhule will have to play a huge role in restoring Baylor’s integrity, and that will be an enormous task.  Our rivals do not have to confront the task of restoring integrity.  Unfortunately, most of Baylor’s lost integrity stems from its Board of Regents who show little interest in restoring Baylor’s integrity, especially if that means hanging their cushy little asses (or big as the case may be) out to dry on a meat hook.  Which sounds like a great idea, but I digress.  Baylor only has one football commitment to date, and the national signing day is less than two months away.  Last year’s recruiting class was decimated by the sexual assault scandal.  All I can think is that Coach Rhule is a glutton for punishment to take on this task.

There are notable flaws in his resume, as I noted at the top.  First, he has no Texas ties himself.  This is huge and quite the contrast from former coach Art Briles, who knows every dirt road in Texas. Coach Rhule can hire a staff full of assistants with Texas ties, and I believe he will.  But at the end of the day, the head coach is the face of the program, and Texas high school coaches will need to be comfortable with him before recommending Baylor to their players.  And when it comes to recruiting, the high school coaches play a very big role.

Next, his only head coaching experience is a Temple, a non-Power 5 conference school.  His only previous “Power 5” coaching experience was in 2001 at UCLA as the defensive line coach.  So it is a thin resume.  With that being said, I cannot help but notice that he put 7 of his Temple players in the NFL over the past season, and he still won 10 games this season despite losing all that talent a year ago.  But, still a thin coaching resume.

Finally, Coach Rhule will bring a more conservative offensive philosophy of football to Baylor.  I do not think that is a bad thing, as long as it is fundamentally sound.  Much of this will depend upon who he hires as his offensive coordinator.  But I expect a more conservative offense than we saw under Coach Briles.  Baylor fans will need to rid themselves of the idea that the high flying offense we enjoyed under Coach Briles is the only offense that will produce winning football. I appreciate what Coach Briles brought to the Baylor football program and to the university.  But it is time to move on past him.  That ship has sailed and it is not coming back to port. Now is the time to get on board with Coach Rhule.

Overall, I am optimistic about this hire.  I believe Coach Rhule to be a man of integrity, which will be the most important characteristic he brings to this program.  I also believe he will bring a great deal of energy and plenty of optimism.  He also better bring a boatload of discipline, which is badly needed.  Baylor football was notably lacking discipline under Art Briles.  While his success is not guaranteed, I like what Coach Rhule does bring to the Baylor football program, and that is a very good start.

Finally, two words to Coach Grobe and the players on the 2016 Baylor football team:  Thank you!  You played this season under impossible circumstances.  I cannot imagine playing, and coaching, for an institution that threw you under the bus, did not support you, but gladly took in the money you generated for this university.  I cannot imagine playing for a governing body utterly lacking in integrity itself, but placing the entire load of blame for its problems on your shoulders.  So, I say thank you to each of you and #SicBoise!