50 For 50

50 For 50

By Chuck Heath

November 12, 2016

 

ESPN has its “30 For 30”.  Well, I can do better than that.  After all, I have been around longer than ESPN, so I am older and wiser.  Today, as I turn 50 years old, I offer up my “50 For 50” – Fifty “Pearls of Wisdom” I have learned in 50 years of living.  Some are funny, some are serious, some are inspirational, and some are silly.  I will let you decide which is which.  I have drawn from inspirational and famous quotes, Scripture passages, song lyrics and my own life’s observations.  There are many other pearls of wisdom I can think of, but I feel these offer the best overall combination of perspective, humor and grace.  Enjoy and thank you for reading.  Chuck

50 Thoughts for my 50^th Birthday

1.       No one ever credits their longevity to eating vegetables or to clean living.

2.       If it were up to men to bear children, the world’s population might be as high as 23 now.  Not 23 billion or 23 million or even 23 hundred.  Just 23.

3.       The great thing about growing old is that you only have to do it once.

4.       Above all else, guard your heart, for everything you do flows from it.  (Proverbs 4:23)

5.       Never lose your childlike innocence, or your childlike wonder.

6.       Some of the greatest gifts:  hugs, laughter, and thinking.  Use each every day.

7.       A kind word can make someone’s day.

8.       If you want to find God, listen for the small, still voice.  God is not in the storm, not in the great wind, not in the thunder, not in the lightning, not in the earthquake, hurricane, or tornado.  He’s in the whisper. (1 Kings 19)

9.       Always keep your hope and dreams alive.  When your hope and your dreams die, a part of you dies.

10.   Always look for the good in someone else.

11.   The Lord is never in a hurry, but He’s always on time. (John Shore)

12.   I’ve learned that teams are great things – to see a team accomplish more than the assembled individuals could ever do is a thing of beauty.

13.   People who love sausage and respect the law should never watch either one being made.

14.   Always believe in your children.  Don’t ever give up on them.

15.   You can’t always protect your children from their mistakes.  Let them make mistakes.  It’s how they learn.

16.   Pray every day.  You can change your world with prayer.

17.   Be careful what it is that you pray for.  You might actually get it.

18.   The wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish. Isaiah 29:14  Be able to think for yourself.

19.   When you are on the side of the vast majority of popular opinion, that’s the time to pause and reflect.  That’s not the time to feel comfortable.

20.   Remember that honesty is always the best policy.  Unless your wife or girlfriend asks you if the jeans she’s wearing makes her butt look big.

21.   Always do the right thing.  It will please some folks and astonish the rest. (Mark Twain)

22.   It’s the money you spend, not the money you save, that counts. (Dad)

23.   Thy word is a lamp unto my feet and a light unto my path (Psalm 119:105)

24.   Only the greater fool wins a bidding war.

25.   The two most powerful words in the English language are “Thank you.”  Use them liberally.  You can never have too much gratitude in your heart.

26.   The three most highly charged words are “I love you.”  Use them liberally with your family, and very carefully with all others.

27.   “Amazing Grace” is the greatest song of all time.  Any time, any genre.

28.   You truly do not begin to live until you step out of your comfort zone.

29.   We all have scars, mistakes and hurt in our past.  If you don’t have any baggage from your past, you haven’t lived.

30.   One of life’s great pleasures is seeing a child opening his or her Christmas presents.

31.   The day my ship comes in, they’ll have a dock strike.

32.   The most expensive thing you have purchased and own is the thing you don’t use. 

33.   And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly, to love mercy and to walk humbly^[a] with your God. Micah 6:8

34.   Finally, brothers and sisters, whatever is true, whatever is noble, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable—if anything is excellent or praiseworthy—think about such things. Philippians 4:8

35.   In matters of style, swim with the tides, in matters of principle, stand firm as a rock.

36.   If a man appears to be lost in deep thought, he’s either thinking about his next meal, his favorite team’s next game, why his car isn’t running right, or sex.

37.   Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

38.   Minor surgery is when they operate on someone else.  Major surgery is when they operate on you.

39.   Never get into a pissing contest with a skunk.

40.   Common sense isn’t so common anymore.

41.   If you can grab a man by his balls (figuratively speaking), his heart and mind will soon follow.

42.   He answered, “‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your strength and with all your mind’; and, ‘Love your neighbor as yourself. (Luke 10:27)

43.   Work hard, play hard.

44.   The bitterness of poor quality is remembered long after the sweetness of a low price is forgotten (Benjamin Franklin)  The words “value” and “inexpensive” are not necessarily synonymous.

45.   If it suddenly ended tomorrow, I could somehow adjust to the fall.  Good times and riches and son-of-a-bitches, I’ve seen more than I can recall. (Jimmy Buffett)

46.   Whatever my lot, thou hast taught me to say, “It is well, it is well, with my soul.” (Horatio Spafford)

47.   Now that I’m 50, I don’t worry about avoiding temptation anymore.  I’m more worried that temptation will avoid me.

48.   My doctor says that I should exercise regularly and that it’s important because it will add years to my life.  He’s right.  Every time I exercise, I feel 10 years older.

49.   The people with truly great power never have to use it.

50.   Husbands love your wives… (Ephesians 5:25).  Men, treat all women with dignity and respect. And treat children with gentleness and kindness. These are some of the greatest things a man can ever do.

51.   And just because I can, I’m adding a bonus pearl of wisdom…stay thirsty my friends!

 

More Thoughts on Baylor

As I have stated on these pages before, I sometimes write these entries not because I have the answers, but because I am still looking for the answers.  I write to help clarify my own thinking and hopefully to those who choose to read this, it will their thinking as well.

Last week, Baylor received another series of blows with the resignation of Title IX Director Patty Crawford, the reinstatement of Jeremy Faulk's scholarship and a Twitter confrontation between the Baylor football coaching staff and the Baylor administration.  Once again, it leaves me about six different kinds of sad for Baylor.  It makes me wonder what is really going on at Baylor, but at the same time, I am highly encouraged by an angry group of alums.

I will start by admitting where I was badly wrong.  Earlier I had praised the Board of Regents for hiring the Pepper Hamilton law firm to find out what went wrong with the sexual assault scandal, particularly as it related to the football program.  I wrongfully assumed that the BOR had Baylor's best interest at heart, and that it was interested in finding out the truth.  I believe I was sorely mistaken on those counts.  What I believe has happened is that Baylor's BOR wanted nothing more than cover for what they wanted to do.

As part of Patty Crawford's resignation, she mentioned that was filing a complaint with the Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights division against COO Reagan Ramsower.  I assume that she, along with her attorney will follow through on this.  And this is where my questions about the Pepper Hamilton "report" begin.

First, Ramsower was the highest ranking administrator at Baylor who came through this unscathed.  Yet the Title IX Director reported to him.  So, the Title IX office was under his perview.  This scandal occurred under his nose, and on his watch.  How the hell did he come out unscathed?  How did Pepper Hamilton deflect all blame away from the very man who was responsible for all this?

To go a bit deeper, did Ramsower keep the BOR fully informed of the division's activities?  Did he keep President Starr fully informed of the division's activities?  The other way of looking at this question:  Was the BOR interested in protecting Ramsower?  Why were they so interested in protecting him?  Ramsower is now at the center of the storm, and the man that the BOR and Pepper Hamilton seemed so interested in protecting is now under federal investigation thanks to Ms. Crawford's actions.  Pay particular attention to this investigation.  The DOE isn't being paid by Baylor, and they have no interest in protecting the Baylor brand.  They could blow the lid off Baylor.

Was Pepper Hamilton actually charged with finding the truth - or just finding the truth as seen through the eyes of the BOR?  Which meant protecting their little "patsy" in the administration.  How many of Pepper Hamilton's 105 recommendations actually focused on Ramsower himself or the BOR?  It sure looks like the people who hired this law firm, and paid them, were strangely absolved of a lot of blame.

Now I will say that I still believe that the firing of Art Briles was justified.  I do not believe he held his players accountable for their behavior.  I believe him to be a very good and decent man who made a colossal error in judgment.  His lack of action regarding his players has left many lives torn and traumatized for years.  And as he said on ESPN, he was the captain of the ship, and the captain goes down with the ship.  So to those alums that want to bring Briles back...forget about it!

At the same time, as Ms. Crawford said, football is actually a very small part of this scandal, and the administration wants to whitewash it and pretend that it will go away.  It will not just go away.  The BOR and the administration needs to own up to its own failings.  And they now need to own up to the failings of the Pepper Hamilton recommendations, and they need to explain all this in very explicit detail.  Of course, they also need to protect privacy, but I do believe that the BOR and the administration can be far more forthcoming while protecting the identity of the victims.

Thanks to the BOR's and/or Dr. Ramsower's inattention to this matter, Baylor will face astronomical legal costs.  So far, eight women have come forward to sue the university.  The BOR and administration's response has been harsh and has been to make it as difficult as possible for the victims, which only insult to their injury.  I expect many more women to come forward as this scandal continues to get uglier.

I do want to conclude by saying that Baylor has so many good things going for it.  First and foremost, many administrators, faculty and staff are truly great people.  I cannot stress this enough.  So many of the students are terrific people too.  There are thousands of young students on campus who are eager to learn and to make a positive difference in the world.  The facilities and amenities are first class all the way.  And a young student can truly receive a first rate education at this terrific institution.  Baylor also possesses a fiercely loyal alumni base who truly love this university.  And right now, many of these alums are angry at the BOR and the administration.  And justifiably so.  It is this group that is loudly demanding the truth about what happened. 

I am also a Baylor alum who fiercely loves this university.  And I want the truth to come out.  I want the victims to receive their justice from Baylor.  They deserve it.  The more I hear coming out of Baylor, the more I believe Patty Crawford's perspective on the shenanigans going on at Baylor.  And that saddens me.  It saddens me that this group of Regents and a select group of administrators have pulled the biggest breach of fiduciary duty in the history of the university.  It is time to revolt against those who put Baylor in its current mess. 

The Myth of The $15 Per Hour Minimum Wage

One of the issues in the 2016 election is the push to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour, an idea which I think will not deliver the results that its proponents claim.

During the last several years, Americans have seen their pay stagnate as a weak economic recovery, weak labor market, increased regulation and increased immigration have combined to stall wages.  During all this time, the federal minimum wage has remained at $7.25 per hour.  Honestly, no one can make an honest living today earning just $7.25 per hour.  Proponents of the higher minimum wage believe that increasing it to $15 per hour will provide all full-time working adults with what they describe as a “living wage.” Unfortunately, their analysis is not thorough enough, and therefore, their idea will not deliver the promised benefit.  I do not believe that a living wage can be achieved through legislation.

We have to look deeper into the thought process behind this proposal.  Like I mentioned above, the idea is to provide a living wage to all full-time working adults.  I am with them on this.  I am all for everyone making more money.  However, I am even more in favor of everyone enjoying a higher standard of living and this is where the proposal falls short.  The weakness in the living wage argument is the assumption that in lifting wages up to the $15 per hour level, nothing else in the economy will change.  You have to make the assumption that nothing else in the economy will change in order to make the argument work.  The problem is that everything else in the economy will change.

To begin understanding why everything else will change, one needs a basic understanding of the labor market, then an understanding of how this will impact company income statements.  I will begin by giving a very basic primer on how labor markets work.  We begin by noting three basic levels of labor:  1) unskilled, 2) skilled, 3) skilled union.  The unskilled worker is at the low end of the totem pole, and this is primarily your workers in such areas as retail, fast food service, tourism, etc…  This is where many teenagers get their first jobs and acquire the basic skills of work, such as showing up on time, providing good customer service, working as a team, communicating with your boss, customers and co-workers.  Skilled workers have learned a trade, such as metal working, wood working, plumbing, electrical, machining, welding, etc.  And of course, union workers are also skilled, but belong to a union that negotiates wages, working conditions and grievance procedures for the workers, which is typically a large set.

Just a basic anecdotal knowledge of the labor market today leads me to conclude that the prevailing wage for unskilled workers is approximately $10 per hour.  A wage scale for skilled and union workers typically is based off the wage for unskilled workers.  Currently, the wage scale for skilled workers is typically in the $16-$22 per hour range, and the wage for union workers is typically in the $28-$35 per hour range.  Of course, this will vary, with some higher and some lower.  This is important to note because as the minimum wage gets pushed up, skilled laborers and union workers will also see an increase in their wages.  As you might expect, unions are typically in favor of minimum wage hikes, because it gives the union added leverage to ask for higher wages in negotiations for their workers.  Plus, as the wage scale gets pushed up, wages for skilled workers will push their way up.  After all, if an unskilled worker is worth $15 per hour, is the skilled worker only worth $20 per hour?  No, the skilled workers’ wages will be pushed up largely because his work is worth considerably more than the labor of the unskilled laborer.

In order for companies to pay for these higher wages, from the unskilled worker all the way up through the union worker, prices will be forced up, and we will all be paying more for the goods and services we consume to pay for the higher wages.  So the unskilled worker, for whom the $15 per hour minimum wage is designed to benefit, will see very little, if any, actual benefit after prices are increased.  Plus, you have to remember that with every company paying the higher wages, all companies will have to raise prices.  This is where the effect on the income statement comes in.  It is not just the wages component of the expense line that increases.  All the inputs, from the raw materials and intermediate goods that a company purchases, will cost more.  Rents will be pushed up.  The cost of power will go up.

This problem is complicated even further by the economics concept known as the substitution effect (see the picture above).  The substitution effect simply states that as the cost of a good or service (in this case, labor) goes higher, the consumers (employers) will seek cheaper alternatives.  The fast food industry is a good example of this.  Most fast food chains have started experimenting in laboratories with robots that can entirely run the restaurant, from food prep and cooking to interfacing with the customer.  While one bemoans the lack of personal service, let’s face it, no one goes to McDonald’s for the service.  Efforts like this could price many unskilled workers out of the labor market.

As the cost of unskilled and skilled labor goes up, the cost of professional, managerial, and executive labor will also go up to adjust for price increases.  So the cost of all labor, and ultimately, the cost of all goods and services will be forced up.  What this means is that the unskilled laborer will wind up in the same position as he is today, even with the $15 per hour minimum wage.  He will be making more money, but will still be far short of a living wage.  A basic fundamental tenant of economics is that you cannot legislate a higher standard of living.

Cost of inputs do not necessarily determine the magnitude of price increases.  Elasticity of demand is also a major determinant.  Products with relatively stable demand such as food or personal care products are said to have inelastic demand.  Products that have highly variable demand such as washers, dryers or cars are said to have elastic demand.  Obviously, in a higher cost/higher price economy, those products with inelastic demand will be able to pass along price increases more easily than those with elastic demand.

So, what drives living standards higher?  Two things off the top of my head: 1) education, and 2) productivity.  People who pursue a higher education do so in order to learn a skill, a trade or a profession.  And once you start on education, you learn that you never really stop.  Education will get you the next step beyond unskilled.  And further education will help land you managerial positions.  But the real key is productivity.  Productivity is simply a unit of output per hour.  The worker who can produce more units in an hour is more productive, his work is more valuable, and chances are he will be paid a higher wage for his increased work.  For both the laborer and the professional, machines often enhance productivity.  Another hidden asset for both is experience, which intuitively teaches faster, more efficient ways of working.  It is interesting to note that as wages have stagnated during this economic recovery, productivity has only increased at a 0.6% average rate over the last six years.  This article is an excellent explanation of how higher productivity drives wages higher.

So, would I favor a higher minimum wage?  Believe it or not, yes I would.  Just not all the way to $15 per hour.  The trick is to keep the minimum wage below the prevailing wage for unskilled labor.  That way, the disruptive effects (i.e. jobs) would be minimal, while everyone would make a little more money.  The current federal minimum wage has been in place since 2009.  Raising the wage to $8.50 or $9.00 per hour would be warranted, keeping the minimum wage below the prevailing wage, and letting those at the very bottom enjoy more income.

A couple of other readings of interest on this comes from a study conducted by the University of Washington into the Seattle law mandating a $15 per hour minimum wage by 2017:

https://fee.org/articles/seattles-minimum-wage-hike-didnt-help-low-wage-workers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/29/study-raising-the-minimum-wage-did-little-for-workers-earnings-in-seattle/

The Best Horse In A Glue Factory

I have never been as disheartened about a Presidential election as I am about this one.  The quality of the candidates this year is as low as I have ever seen.  I do not know if misery loves company, but I am definitely not alone in my feelings.  The Real Clear Politics Average Favorable/Unfavorable Rating for Donald Trump is 34% Positive, 58% Negative for a net rating of -24%.  For Hillary Clinton, the RCP Average Favorable/Unfavorable Rating is 37% Positive, 55% Negative for a net rating of -18%.  Both averages were based on polls taken between May 1-31 .(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html).  As has been noted several times, these are the highest net negative ratings of any Presidential candidates since this statistic started being tracked in 1984.  To add further insult to all this, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll noted that about 80% of those who gave Trump a negative rating went ahead and gave him a Strong Negative rating (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html).  Same with Clinton.  For the record, I am solidly with the majority of my fellow Americans on this.

 

All of this reminded me of the words of a former colleague of mine at UMB, a man who I still consider to this day the best investment manager I have ever known.  He liked to say that those investment managers who lost less money than their peers in a down market were nothing more than the best horse in a glue factory.  And what happens to the best horse in a glue factory?  To be the "least bad" choice in a plethora of bad choices still makes you a bad choice. 

 

Clearly, the majority of voters see this as a very negative year for Presidential candidates.  Let us face it:  many of who vote for Hillary Clinton will do so because they do not want Donald Trump to be President.  Many of vote for Donald Trump will do so merely because they do not want Hillary Clinton to be President.  Boy, that's both exciting and inspiring, isn't it?  In other words, regardless of who wins, the voters will be voting for that candidate that they feel is the best horse in a glue factory.

 

As for me, I have no intention of voting for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.  Nor would I vote for Bernie Sanders.  I might look at the Libertarian candidate, Bill Johnson and his running mate William Weld.  And they have lots of baggage on them, too.  But I am not going to vote for the "least bad" choice merely to make a choice.  Give me a person of integrity and intelligence worthy of the office.  Give me a candidate who believes in me, and others like me (i.e. the American people), and is willing to unleash the creative energy and power of us all.  Give me a candidate who does not want to micromanage my life, and give me a candidate who truly believes that America is unique among the nations of the world, that the idea of the "American Dream" is still alive and kicking.

 

Do not give me the best horse in a glue factory.

Baylor's Immortal Message, and Today's Actions

“Because of what Baylor has meant to you in the past, because of what she will mean to you in the future, oh, my students, have a care for her. Build upon the foundations here the great school of which I have dreamed, so that she may touch and mold the lives of future generations and help to fit them for life here and hereafter. To you seniors of the past, of the present, of the future I entrust the care of Baylor University. To you I hand the torch. My love be unto you and my blessing be upon you.”

 

The words above are the final paragraph of Baylor University President, Dr. Samuel Palmer Brooks, written as part of the Class of 1931 Commencement speech.  Dr. Brooks was dying of cancer as he wrote these words, and he ultimately passed away before the Commencement ceremony that spring.  Dr. Brooks wrote this speech not just for the Class of 1931, but for all classes that passed through Baylor.  The speech is now known as the “ImmortalMessage” at Baylor.

 

I thought about these words and what they truly mean today as Baylor is engulfed in an embarrassing scandal, with the Board of Regents firing Head Coach Art Briles, placing Athletic Director Ian McCaw on probation, and demoting President Ken Starr.  Those entrusted with the care of Baylor did not have a care for her, nor did they build upon the foundation of a great university.  Now, Baylor’s reputation lies in tatters, the school and the alumni are embarrassed and it will get worse before it gets better.  Much worse.

 

I will say a few words in this article about Baylor, about Art Briles, and about the Board of Regents. 

 

“Truths do not change. The truths of life which I learned as a student at Baylor have not varied, nor will they vary.”

 

These words are also from the Immortal Message, and Baylor learned its own truth the hard way.  Baylor is an unapologetic Christian university.  I am proud to call Baylor my alma mater in part because of this.  Because of Baylor’s Christian stance, the University’s conduct is held to a higher standard.  That is as it should be.  And Baylor should strive every day to live up to that higher standard.  In that regard, Baylor has failed over the past 5 years.  To allow a Baylor student athlete to sexually assault a woman is entirely unacceptable.  For the University to turn its back on the victims of these crimes is unconscionable.  To place the winning of football games on Saturdays ahead of the University’s call and mission is deplorable. 

 

Baylor is truly a special and unique place in this world.  The University imparts a first class academic education, but also imparts a sense of spiritual truth to go with it.  This is what makes the University special, and the alumni people who strive to make the world a better place. I truly believe that expanding both the mind and the soul makes for the ultimate richness in life.  Part of that call is to bring justice to the victim as well as love and hope to the oppressed.  When the University is operating in harmony with God’s will, Baylor is as good as it gets.  When the University strays off the tried and true path of God, it all goes horribly wrong.  Today it has gone wrong.  Tomorrow we go about the task of setting the University right again.

 

This scandal will get worse before it gets better.  The victims of the crimes will no doubt bring a slew of lawsuits against Baylor.  But the first step the University must take is to make things as right as possible with the victims of these crimes.  The second step is to ensure there will not be a repeat of this scandal, now or forever.  These women have been traumatized, and a part of their soul was robbed by the guilty players and the coaching staff and administration that turned a blind eye to it.  Next, I anticipate the NCAA will come calling with a “lack of institutional control” charge.  I fully expect that Baylor will receive a minimum 2 year post-season ban.  These actions will likely cost Baylor over $100 million.  The cost to its reputation cannot be measured.  The cost of ruined lives cannot be replaced.

 

A few words about Art Briles. Briles certainly took Baylor to the mountaintop of college football.  Maybe not all the way there, but he sure got us close.  He is unquestionably a terrific football coach.  We must not forget that Briles is a good man, but he made a colossal – and firable – mistake in judgment.  We must pray that the man finds his redemption, and that he can do well as he goes forth with his life.

 

I applaud the actions of the Baylor Board of Regents throughout the entire ordeal.  When news first broke last August about Baylor football players committing sexual assaults and the subsequent cover-ups by the coaching staff and administration, the Board kept a level head.  Instead of being caught up in the hype and frenzy, they took the measured step of hiring an outside firm to investigate the charges.  The Board knew they had to get it right.  They gave the outside firm the time and room they needed to conduct the investigation.  And when the results of the investigation came in, the Board took swift and decisive action.

 

Now we look to the future.  We know what the immediate future likely holds.  But as Christians, we will always look to a future filled with hope.  The words of my Pastor, Adam Hamilton, ring true as he so often says, “(F)or those whose hope is in Jesus Christ, the worst thing is never the last thing.”  Jesus forgives and He heals.  We must pray for healing for the victims of the sexual assaults.  We must pray that they find their own hope in a healing Savior, that life will go on, and it will be filled with love, joy, health and happiness.  We must pray for Baylor, as it seeks to right many wrongs. 

 

Longer term, I have faith in the University that it will know the right steps to take.  Perhaps the University has extended its reach too far athletically and needs to pull back a bit.  Believe me, I love to win.  I have mellowed in many ways as I have aged, but my desire to win has never wavered, nor ever dimmed.  Do I like beating Oklahoma and Texas on the football field?  I love it!  Do I like doing it by selling out, by cutting corners to ensure that all my players are eligible to play on Saturday, regardless of their conduct off the field?  No.  Baylor must remember its calling, and live up to that calling.  Winning football games at the expense of the University’s mission should never be a part of that calling.  Let us all live to the words of the Immortal Message as we light the ways of time!

Sic ‘em Bears!

Making Sense of Trump

"..the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish" - Isaiah 29:14

Nothing has caught the "experts" off guard the last year like the ascension of Donald Trump to the top of the Republican presidential nomination contest.  He was ignored, scoffed at, tossed aside.  The polls kept showing him at the top of the race.  This will not last, they said.  It did.  Trump went on to win primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina and a caucus in Nevada before winning seven of eleven states in the Super Tuesday primaries this past Tuesday.  Even now, the commentary I see from the "experts" is so profoundly stupid, that I cannot learn anything about the race from them.  However, there are a few gems that actually make sense and start to analyze correctly what is going on.

"God must love the common man, He made so many of them" - Abraham Lincoln

Making America Great Again

Most of the asinine commentary from the most ignorant of the "experts" (I have to put that in quotes, otherwise the reader might infer that I believe them to truly be experts) revolves around the idea that Trump's supporters are only backing him because of his racist sentiments that he has expressed.  Has he made such statements?  Yes, of course he has.  Are his supporters backing him because of it?  I do not believe so.  Let us look at this campaign slogan, "Making America Great Again."  To break down this statement, it implies that America was once great, but currently is not great.  There are certainly plenty of numbers that back that up.  Face it, the economy has sucked for the past 15 years.  Currently, the nation is on a 10-year streak of sub 3% GDP growth, the only time in this nation's history that has happened.  Nobody is painting a rosy picture for 2016.  After the weak December retail sales report, economists of all stripes were busy revising their 2016 GDP estimates down. Wages are down during the current recovery, and entrepreneurship is in the toilet (more small businesses are closing than opening).

Who got us into this mess?  Hint: it was not the working class.  It was the elite, most notably the political elite of both parties, and their fellow collaborators on Wall Street.  And it was both working in unison.  The typical Trump voter has been identified as an older, white working-class man.  However, polls do also show that he garners higher levels of support from Hispanics and African-Americans than any Republican since George W Bush in 2004.  The typical Trump voter couldn't care less if he is a Republican or a Democrat.  What they see is a political system in which Democrats and Republicans have conspired to create for themselves a cozy relationship that enriches each of them while leaving a pittance for the rest of us.  It is a highly corrupt system, and Trump is the only one willing to take it all on.  They want to see the system blown up and in Trump they see just the guy to do it.

Much of the commentary also suggests that Trump's supporters have an irrational hatred of President Barack Obama.  Do they dislike him, even despise him? Yes, they do.  Do they loathe him because of his skin color?  The vast majority do not.  However, there is a lot more that defines the Trump supporter.  The base Republican voter is simply put, mad as hell at the Republican establishment and see it as an entity that needs to be obliterated.  The Republican voter elected large numbers of Representatives and Senators in the 2010 and 2014 mid-term elections to derail the Obama agenda.  What they got was a lot of nothing.  For all the rhetoric and bluster that has come from the Republican leadership, they have basically rolled over and died for President Obama.  President Obama has gotten everything he has wanted since the Republican takeover in 2014.  The Republicans have not lifted a finger to derail his agenda.  And that has the Republican voter very upset.  The Republican leadership has been more worried about the opinion of liberal commentators than their own constituents, which has put them in the situation they are in now.  If it was just a general dislike of President Obama, the base Republican voter would be more than happy to vote for the establishment candidate that vowed to undo his agenda (but ultimately wouldn't).

The one issue that really ignites the Trump voters is immigration.  Right now, our southern border is completely out of control, and the government does not want to do anything about it.  Democrats see more voters coming across the borders, Republicans see lots of cheap labor.  Meanwhile, the working class sees someone coming to take his job (you don't really think those people crossing the border will ever take the place of any of our current Congressmen or Wall Street CEO's, do you?), or at best, hold down his wages.  The experience in Europe really has not caught the attention of the politicians here. 

There are also foreign policy issues, where the general consensus is that President Obama's policy in the Middle East has been a disaster.  Syria is a mess, ISIS has made the President look foolish on multiple occasions, the Iranian nuclear deal looks like a one-sided beat down and Russia is taking the lead in the Middle East.  The average voter looks at this and sees that America is being beaten, and Trump re-enforces that notion by stating that we no longer win anything.  And people believe that. 

Now, let us get back to reality.  Trump is in way over his head with this one.  He has shown an amazing lack of grace, an amazing lack of knowledge about foreign affairs, and an air of the high school student who never cracked a book and is trying to pass the test by reading the Cliff Notes the night before.  For example, I cannot believe that he would order his generals, and the troops under their command, to commit war crimes by intentionally killing the families of terrorists.  Does he really think that Mexico will pay for a wall on the border? 

I will close by saying that I am not a Trump supporter.  However, I believe he actually has a good chance of winning.  And people better understand the phenomenon behind it.  Right now the "experts" have no clue - absolutely none.  I do believe that he can do some good things as President, especially as it relates to the economy and job creation.  His style, though, will wear thin and flame out quickly.  Deeper down, there are lots of dangerous under currents.  I believe that we as a nation are closer to a Civil War now than at any time since 1860.  Only this will be more like a revolution than a Civil War, and revolutions never end well for those in power.  The people are fed up.  As long as the power elites can point the finger at someone else and their supporters to believe it, they are safe.  But as soon as the people stop believing the finger pointing, it will get messy.  We are seeing the tip of the iceberg with the Republicans.  The time is coming for the Democrats and their supporters (I'm very surprised it has not happened yet with the Democrats).  At this point, keep your heads up, keep your eyes open, and listen to the small, still voice.  And tune the "experts" out.



First Thoughts on 2016 Presidential Election

First Thoughts On 2016 Presidential Election


As we look forward to 2016, one of the biggest events in the next year will be the Presidential election in the U.S.  I've assembled a few initial thoughts about this race, primarily in order to keep the idiot class (ie. pundits) from dictating my thinking.  This election will be vitally important largely because the world is a much more dangerous place than at any time since 1980.  The world is largely leaderless, and dangerous forces are moving in to fill the vacuum.  Nuclear proliferation is on the rise.  So is Jihadism.  Our allies no longer trust us and our enemies no longer respect us.  Our economy muddles along at best.  With that backdrop, here are some of my collected thoughts:


1.  Republicans are stupid.  So are Democrats.  So are conservatives and liberals.  All are equally stupid and all are equally corrupt.


2.  Our next President will be a war time leader.  We can no longer hide the fact that there is a faction of Islam that is at war with us.  And has been for 20 years.  It's time to stop burying our heads in the sand regarding this issue.


3.  Donald Trump is so far the 800 lb gorilla in this race.  He says stupid, offensive, horrible things.  So, why do people like him?  I have several theories:  1.  He talks about making America great again.  Most people intuitively have the sense that we have lost our greatness.  He tells us that America no longer wins.  Quite frankly, this is a very believable narrative.  2.  He projects power and lots of it.  For all his flaws, Trump has a larger than life personality.  3.  People sense that Trump will garner international respect.  I'm not sure if this is actually true.  He has obviously caught the attention of Vladimir Putin.  Putin, as I see it, respects those who project power, and walks all over those who don't.  He respects Trump and walks all over Obama.


4.  Reaccelerating economic growth needs to be a top priority for the next President.  Between 1947-2000, average GDP growth in this country was 3.5%.  We have topped that only once in the last 15 years, in 2004. During the current economic recovery, GDP growth has averaged 2.2%.  Wages are stagnant to down and the labor force participation rate is at a 40-year low.  In other words, our economy basically sucks.  No wonder this doesn't feel like a recovery to most people.  And there are voice in this campaign that are already saying this is the best that we can do. I utterly reject that.  I know we can do better and I want a President who knows we can do better.


5.  We need a leader who will honor the work ethic.  We currently have an entitlement culture that I find rather baffling. We have a nation of people today who think they are entitled to all the luxuries of this life simply because they are.  Hey, how about you go work for it and earn it?  This entitlement mentality needs to go.


6. We need leaders who stop disparaging success.  All we hear is how successful people are corrupt, that they are basically thieves.  We need to celebrate success in the economy to help generate more of it.  Painting all "rich people" as corrupt is also insulting.  It tells us to believe the worst in people.  Indeed there are plenty of corrupt rich people.  But there are plenty who do wonderful things with their money, whether it is to help those in need, or invest in the betterment of our communities or in successful companies that create jobs. 


7. We need leaders who will honor and lift up our free enterprise system instead of tearing it down.  For all its flaws, capitalism is the best economic system of all time.  It has created more wealth than any other system in history and created a higher standard of living than any other system ever.  We need to lift up our innovators and our entrepreneurs, not stifle them. 


8.  The biggest barrier to entry for many people today is an abundance of regulations that keep entrenched competitors firmly in place while keeping new entrants out.  Regulation increases the cost of doing business, which is a nuisance to large, established competitors and a killer to newer and smaller businesses.  In the last 7 years, we have been inundated with harmful regulations in finance, health care, communications and energy.


9.  The United States has zero credibility in the Middle East these days, and not much more in other places around the world.  The next President will have a tremendous re-building job ahead of him, especially with Israel and our Arab allies in the Middle East.


10.  Our #1 long-term enemy in the Middle East is Iran.  We keep being told that the Iranian people want to embrace our Western values.  That is likely true.  However, the mullahs in Iran rule with an iron fist and they have no interest in establishing any sort of friendship with us.  We had our chance with all the protests in 2009, and we did nothing.  Remind me again why we are paving their road to a nuclear bomb?


11.  ISIS must be defeated.  The wholesale slaughter they are performing on "infidels" is appalling.  And the young women forced in sex slavery is sickening.  Their celebration of different, yet unbelievably cruel ways of putting people to death makes me want to vomit.  This is basically a death and rape cult.  They are also a different kind of terrorist organization.  They have a sustainable source of revenue in the form of oil sales.  ISIS derives an estimated $500 - $700 million annually from the sale of oil.


12.  We need to find our friends who are fighting ISIS and arm them.  Why aren't we befriending the Kurds and arming them?  These guys are tough, they fight, and they have had some success in fighting ISIS.  Carpet bombing ISIS is a hopelessly flawed strategy.  We need "boots on the ground" in this fight.  Again, why can't the Kurds be our boots on the ground? 


13.  Deporting all illegal immigrants is hopelessly unrealistic.  However, in this Age of Terror, we need to take all steps to secure our borders.  The first job of the President is to keep the citizens safe. 


14.  Russia will be a problem, too.  Vladimir Putin respects America's power, so he will not directly go after us.  But we need a leader that he respects, too.  We need to arm the rebels in the Ukraine that are fighting the Russian military presence there. 


15.  Most of all, this election will be about leadership.  We need a leader who is in engaged, one who is in touch with the concerns of average Americans.  We need a leader who truly understands that the best leaders are a servant, not a master.  We need a President who will lead the world when called upon to do so.  We need a leader who has enough trust in the people to unleash their creative genius, not cage it.


16.  Economic growth is hard work, and does not have a simple government solution.  We need a government that will let go of its power in order to create that growth.  This is where leadership comes in.  Entrepreneurship is dying in this country.  We need more innovation, we need new companies that can succeed and bring fresh perspectives to the market place.  We need a government that will trust its citizens.  This is what will spread the wealth around, this is what creates good jobs at good wages, and this is what trickle down economics is all about.


17.  We need a President that believes in us.  That believes in the good that we can do.  And will lead us down that path.  I personally am sick of being lectured to by this President.  I want a President who believes in America, in the American dream, and will lead us back down that path.  One who believes that we can do better, and is relentlessly optimistic about America, and truly believes our best days are still ahead of us.


I am sure I will have more as time goes on.  This is all I have for now.