What Does The "Glow of An Expectant Widow" Look Like?

 Last Thursday, talk show host Jimmy Kimmel ran a bit on his show in which he was the MC at the White House Correspondent's Dinner (WHCD) when he lovingly and affectionately mentioned to Melania Trump that she looked like someone with "the glow of an expectant widow." Kimmel has faced a firestorm of accusations about this comment, including calls from the President and First Lady that Kimmel should be fired.

Kimmel is protected by the First Amendment right to freedom of speech. I do not believe that he should be fired over this one comment. He has the right to speak offensively and hatefully, and he employed both in this one statement. I will not make any calls to take those rights away from him. In his role, he also has the right to be funny, a right for which he has yet to take advantage. 

Was this comment objectively horrible? Yes. No one tries making jokes about someone potentially dying. Was the comment offensive? It was offensive to this widower. I never got to experience "the glow of the expectant widow(er)" because I was never one. My wife passed very suddenly, very unexpectedly and violently. As a result I was never "expectant." But I do have a soft spot in my heart for widows and widowers, especially those who lose a spouse at a tragically young age. I have been there and I know the hurt that the surviving spouse is feeling. This comment does not offend because of any perceived hurt on me. But in this moment, I think about the surviving spouse of a friend who passed away on April 15 from ALS. That has to be one of the hardest, cruelest deaths imaginable as it takes away all your physical abilities. ALS has no cure and has a 100% fatality rate. His wife stayed faithfully by his side throughout the entire ordeal. As a text message I received said, "As her MIL she was extremely kind and gave me an open door policy to come see (Name redacted) whenever I wanted. We all appreciate what she did for (redacted)! Never left his side for months! My heart hurts for her!" That is a saint. Those two were married less than 5 years ago. She spent about half her marriage caring for her dying husband, knowing there was no chance he would ever get better. I want to look Jimmy Kimmel in the eye and ask him, "What does the glow of this expectant widow look like?" This woman by now is exhausted, emotionally beat up and about to shed enough tears to fill multiple swimming pools. Again, I ask, "What does the glow of this expectant widow look like?" I fully expect that if I ever got that chance, he would pussyfoot around the question and give me every non-answer he could. I have no idea what the glow of an expectant widow looks like. I have never seen one. The expectant widows I know do not "glow." One thing I know for damn sure is that it is not funny.

I can understand Mrs. Trump's frustration and her call to have Mr. Kimmel fired. As mentioned earlier, Kimmel is protected by the Constitution and the right to freedom of speech. It does need to be noted that Mrs. Trump's husband has said some awful, horrible and vomit-inducing things about others after their passings. The most recent was the President's statement after the passing of Robert Mueller in which he said, "Good. I'm glad he's dead." There is no excuse for that type of statement from the President, and Melania's words fall on deaf ears quickly. 

There are plenty of reasons to fire Kimmel, should Disney want to go that route. This is at least the second time in the last 6-8 months that Kimmel has publicly embarrassed his bosses at ABC and Disney. Kimmel routinely draws audiences of around 1.7-1.8 million per night. By comparison, during the 1970's and 1980's, a time with many fewer TV sets and eyeballs, the GOAT in Kimmel's business - Johnny Carson - was pulling in 10X the number of viewers that Kimmel draws today. In fact, Carson's average audience was triple what Kimmel, Colbert and Fallon draw - combined. Carson put together a quality, genuinely funny show that did not have to routinely fight off calls to be fired over comments in poor taste because he did not go there. 

While I do not believe that Kimmel should be fired for this one comment, I would like to see Disney put out a strong statement of disapproval. Kimmel was trying to be funny and taking his shot at the Trumps. However, his comment hit people like the woman I mentioned above. And I find that highly offensive. As for me, I have never watched his show and I will not start now or ever.

In The Age of Hate - Love Your Enemy?

Today is Palm Sunday, and the beginning of Holy Week for Christians around the world. We prepare for and reflect upon the Last Supper, the arrest, trial and crucifixion of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. And we remember the ultimate triumph, the resurrection and Christ's victory over death. For me, I reflected on all this by going back and reading his very first sermon - The Sermon on the Mount found in the Gospel of Matthew, chapters 5-7. This is the core theology of Jesus. The words were radical then and they may be even more radical today. I am particulary struck by the words of Jesus in Matthew 5:43-48.

"You have heard that it was said, "Love your neighbor and hate your enemy. But, I tell you, love  your enemies and pray for those who persecute you that you may be children of your Father in heaven. He causes his sun to rise on the evil and the good, and sends rain on the righteous and the unrighteous. If you love those who love you, what reward will you get? Are not even the tax collectors doing that? And if you greet only your own people, what are you doing more than others? Do not even pagans do that? Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect."

What? You've got to be kidding me! Jesus was not kidding. Love. Your. Enemies. In our society today, one in which we have normalized, rationalized, and justified hate, how radical would it be to love our enemies instead? Have you ever prayed for an enemy before? I do not know that I have. The closest I think I came was from about 8th grade for me. Those who know me are aware that I played plenty of baseball as a kid. We enjoyed our share of success, but we had one team that we could not beat no matter what. We thought they were all obnoxious and a bunch of bums. Definitely not human. It was easy to make them an enemy. Then along about 8th grade, one of their players encountered a serious kidney illness that was going to require major medical attention. One night after our team had a baseball practice, we all loaded into our various coaches' cars and headed over to this young man's house to give him a couple of presents and to let him know that we were pulling for him. And we prayed for him. Right there in his bedroom, where he was basically bedridden. I hope that he felt blessed in those few moments that we spent with him. But, it changed me. I think for the first time I saw this young man, and all his teammates, as human. And in my own heart I sincerely wished for the best for him. Now, do not get me wrong - the next time we went out and played against these guys we wanted to beat the crap out of them. We failed, and they continued to have their hold over us. But I was changed.

Jesus told us to love our enemies. He did not say "Do not hate your enemies." That leaves a lot of room for indifference. He does not want us to be indifferent. He wants us to love our enemies. Who even is your enemy? The best I could come up with is that an enemy is someone who actively wants you to fail without any regard for you. In the big scheme of things, an opposing player is not an enemy, but a rival or an opponent. 

These are tough words. "Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect." Make no mistake that perfection is the standard. Have I lived up to it? Not even close. This is where grace comes in, but that is for another day. Love your enemies. I love my friends and family, particularly my immediate family. My kids, my friends, even my wife who has been deceased for several years now. And you want me to have the same feelings for my enemies that I have for those closest to me? And to demonstrate that love when called upon to do so? That's a tough ask, but that is what the Lord demands. 

These words have been on my heart this week as I have re-read the Sermon on the Mount. I have read these words several times in my life, and it is easy to skim over the words and not give them much thought. Love your enemies. In today's world that is some radical thinking. I would encourage you to open your Bibles and read the Gospel of Matthew, chapters 5-7. And really focus on the words of Jesus.

Finally, as for the opposing baseball player, he is very much alive today, and by all accounts has been quite successful in life. And I am truly happy for him.

The Inevitables

 Back in the 1990's, investor Warren Buffet talked about 4 stocks in his investment portfolio that he called "the inevitables." He described their businesses as almost bullet proof and indicated that he would never sell any of them. Fast forward 30 years, and how things have changed! The four publicly traded inevitables were Capital Cities/ABC, Coca-Cola, Gillette and the Washington Post. Today, only Coca-Cola remains in Berkshire Hathway's portfolio and the other three are hardly at the top of their game. What happened?

Three of the companies were purchased and taken out of the public markets. Capital Cities/ABC was purchased by Disney. Gillette was purchased by Procter & Gamble. The Washington Post was purchased by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. What is surprising about this is that these Inevitables are struggling today. Capital Cities/ABC owned the ABC television network and ESPN. Both of these networks are struggling today, the victim of increased competition and changing consumer preferences. Gillette has seen increased competition in razor blades, deodorants, and facial care in general. Finally, today the Washington Post announced that it is laying off 1/3 of its staff. 

What happened to these companies? In short, the world changed. Mr. Buffet always liked the local newspaper business. It was basically a legal monopoly, as most cities had just one major newspaper, meaning there was very little competition for advertising dollars. Then, along came the Internet. The local newspaper business died out as people got their news from the Internet, which cratered subscriptions, which in turn cratered advertising revenue. These factors put the Washington Post on life support, and given the public's increasing distrust of the media, and today's announcement was not surprising. Just as an example, I use X as my newspaper, following a variety of journalists from all over the country. X is my sports page, it is my front page. And it is free. We take it for granted today, but 30 years ago, this was barely a dream.

Gillette pioneered the "razor blade model" of business, giving it a dominant market share in that business. The company hit on the idea that they could basically give away their razors and make money on the interchangeable blades, which consumers would have to buy over and over again. In addition, manufacturing razor blades was highly specialized, which also discouraged competition. But, in recent years, lower priced competitors have entered this space and Gillette has lost market share.

If I think about this too long, I am in a state of disbelief. Thirty years ago, the greatest stock market investor of all-time basically declared that these four companies were the very best investments in the world. Today, his beloved Washington Post is on life support. Capital Cities/ABC (now a part of Disney) is nothing to write home about. Gillette and Coca-Cola are just fair to middlin' companies. What happened? The world changed and these companies did not change with it. You can never rest on your laurels in this big, bad world. Finally, do not weep for Mr. Buffet. He made many millions on the sale of these companies, and he still owns his full stake in Coca-Cola.

End of An Era

 Today, December 31, 2025, marks Warren Buffett’s last day as the Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and it feels like the end of an era. For many years, I have had the pleasure of looking up to many of the masters of the stock market. People who produced outstanding results for themselves and their clients. There are also many who toiled in anonymity and produced wonderful results for their clients. I have also had the pleasure of working with many different types of investors, and that has allowed me to see what works for me and what I could never fully grasp.

Mr. Buffett has been the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway since 1965 (that was before this 59-year-old writer was even born!) and over that 60-year span the stock has produced a compounded annual growth rate of 19%, easily beating the market benchmark. He has built a bit of a cult following and his annual meetings in Omaha every May are stuff of legend. He has been known to take large positions in a small number of equities and reaping large returns. By and large, he has done it the right way. Along the way he has doled out some wonderful advice and tidbits about his investing style. He bought businesses, not pieces of paper. He bought businesses that he understood and could easily explain to a 10-year-old. He studied balance sheets more than income statements. He loved cash flow and he loved businesses that generated large sums of cash. He said that his preferred holding period for a stock is forever. He said that when he bought a stock he would be comfortable not looking at the stock price for the next five years. He clearly bought for the long-term, not for the next quarter. Did he make some bad investments along the way? Sure. But his winners far outnumbered his losers.

So now another investment genius has decided to move on. It made me realize that these masters that I have looked up to for so long are old – and I am right behind them! Mr. Buffett is 95 years old. Every year, I like to put out a piece called “10 Things” that are based on a piece I used to read called “10 Surprises” by Byron Wien. Mr. Wien died in 2023 at the age of 90. Peter Lynch is another great investor whose investment wisdom I liked to follow. He is now in an advanced stage of cognitive decline and no longer makes public appearances. Howard Marks is another investor whose wisdom I like to follow and he is now in his 80’s. I think of some of the people I used to work with. The equity manager who I most admired was a man named Jim Moffett, and he is in his 80’s. He had many pithy little sayings that conveyed a bunch of wisdom. I think of Dave Anderson, whose investment style I could never wrap my mind around, but I am thankful to have been exposed to it. Mr. Anderson also gave me every opportunity I had at UMB and for that I am forever grateful. Mr. Anderson passed away in 2013. For personal money management, nobody could touch my Dad. This is a respect and admiration that has grown by leaps and bounds as I have aged. I will always remember his great advice about buying stuff simply because it was on sale – “It’s the money you spend, not the money you save, that counts.” If you would not have paid full price for it, what have you really gained? If you would have paid full price, and you got it on sale, that was a winner!

I still remember going to a Barnes & Noble in either late 1999 or early 2000 and seeing one of the tables at the front of the store highlighting books around the theme of “Investing.” I remember that every single book on that table was about day trading! I cringed when I saw that and I can only imagine what Mr. Buffett’s reaction would have been. I think that both of us would have preferred to see that table burned to the ground and the memory of it erased. That was not investing that was gambling. If I am going to gamble, then I want to gamble on something far more entertaining that a bunch of numbers on a computer screen! Finally, during the biggest bull market in history, 80% of day traders lost money! Mr. Buffett’s slow and steady won the race and that is how I will always advise others to invest their money.

Today is the end of an era. And a little bit of market wisdom retreats to the sideline. Mr. Buffett did what he loved, and he was great at it. From what I can gather, he has been retired since 1965! Meanwhile, the market will go on, and other great investors will come along. But, this has been a golden age for someone like me to look up to these masters.

Ten Things For 2026 - The Chickens Come Home To Roost

Every year at this time, I like to look ahead to the New Year and make forecasts in the spirit of Byron Wien, who used to put out his “10 Surprises” list. Mr. Wien would put out 10 possible events for the new year that he noted were outside the consensus thinking, but for which he thought had a greater than 50/50 chance of happening. I am not placing a probability on these events, so I will simply call them “10 Things For 2026.” I became familiar with Mr. Wien’s work during the 1990’s when I was still an equity analyst who thought he knew everything and Mr. Wien was an investment strategist for Morgan Stanley, and who knew much more than I did. Most of Mr. Wien’s predictions naturally centered around the financial markets. Mine will include the financial markets but will also include other areas of interest to me.

Overall, I am not optimistic about 2026, either from a financial market perspective or any other perspective. Next year should be a year that this country should be in quite a celebratory mood, as it will mark the 250^th anniversary of the passage of the Declaration of Independence, in which we declared our separation from Great Britain. This was one of the most notable events in all human history, and yet I am not convinced that the citizens of the United States appreciate what our Revolution truly meant. As Abigail Adams wrote to her husband John, “Future generations who will reap the blessings will scarcely know the hardships and sufferings that we’ve endured on their behalf.” We are becoming – or have become – the very people that we rebelled against 250 years ago.

In short, 2026 is looking like a year in which our chickens will come home to roost. Our culture has been building up towards some sort of catastrophic event, or events, for a number of years. We live in a restless and angry age. We are losing our humanity. We are losing our soul. We are normalizing political violence and have become accepting of it. We place a lower value on human life. Our closest and most intimate relationships are becoming transactional.

I know that many will see reasons to be optimistic. I look for AI to continue producing strong results, although we are seeing a noticeable slowing in that sector. Inflation looks like it is well tamed, wages are rising and this bodes well for affordability.

Here are my 10 Things For 2026:

1.      I know that I am way outside the consensus on my first “10 Things” outlook for 2026. The consensus is calling for stock indexes to rise by double digits next year. What I see is that stock market indexes will produce a negative return next year. There are several factors at work here. First, valuations are historically high, specifically with the “Mag 7” stocks that have continued to soar higher. Higher stock prices do not fall simply because they are overvalued. There needs to be a catalyst, a reason to send the stocks down, and that typically comes from either a slowing economy or from some sort of financial crisis. Second, an historically high amount of stock has been purchased on margin (ie debt). Falling stock prices produce margin calls, which makes dramatic drops in stock prices even worse. Finally, the stock market tends to follow a Presidential cycle. During that cycle, the year of the mid-term elections usually produces a below average return, and I believe we will see more of the same in 2026.

2.    Another area where I am outside the consensus is economic growth. According to The Blue Chip Survey, GDP is expected to come in at 1.9% for 2026, which is below average. I think economic growth might be less than that, more in line with 1%. Minds much smarter than me see many tail winds that will produce higher than expected growth with moderate inflation, but I see head winds that could slow down the economy. For the economy to hold up like the experts are predicting, employment will need to hold up. I think employment is highly vulnerable next year.

3.     I talk of chickens coming home to roost in 2026, and this will occur in several places. First, household debt is at record levels and continues to climb. Mortgage debt, auto debt, credit card debt and personal debt are all at record high levels. This can go on as long as employment holds up. However, the latest employment report put the unemployment rate at 4.6%, the highest level in four years. My personal belief is that the economy has been a house of cards for the past 3-4 years, largely because the growth has built by an unsustainable mountain of debt. Job growth in full-time employment has been stagnant during this time and the growth in jobs has come from areas like contract jobs, gig economy jobs and part-time jobs. I would not be surprised to see unemployment rise to more than 5% - 5.5% in 2026, which would produce in spike up in credit defaults and bankruptcies.

4.   Crypto currency will be another area where the chickens come home to roost. Bitcoin is down about 8.5% on the year as I write this, and this is an asset that can easily see a big drop in a hurry. As anyone who has ever sat in finance class at an accredited university knows, the intrinsic value of any financial asset equals the present value of the future cash flow streams. The intrinsic value of bitcoin is literally zero. What backs its valuation? Air? Right now, this is an asset that looks like it is dependent on the greater fool theory, and the world will be running out of greater fools in 2026 (the world will not be running out of greater fools – those greater fools will be running out of money). Any flight to quality, which I believe we will see in 2026, will not include Bitcoin or any other crypto currency.

5.   Gold and silver will be two assets that will hold their value in 2026. While both have experienced tremendous rallies in 2025, a flight to quality will include both assets. Both assets tend to spike up in price during inflationary times. I do not see inflation being a problem in 2026. I do see inflation staying in the 3%-3.5% range for the year, which is higher than the fed would like. However, given the struggles that we will see in other areas of the economy, I do expect to see interest rate cuts during 2026.

6.    I really hope I am wrong with this one, but I think we will see a significant act of political violence in 2026. Perhaps multiple acts. We live in a restless and angry age, one in which people feel justified in committing acts of violence.

7.    In the fall mid-term elections, I expect the Democrats will retake the house and I believe the Republicans will hold onto the Senate.

8.     By the end of 2026, I expect that we will see increasing calls for President Trump to resign coming from an unexpected source: Republicans. The President gave us quite a glimpse into this with his appalling reaction to the tragic death of Rob Reiner, which he managed to make about himself. Republicans widely condemned the President’s reaction. When confronted about this by a reporter, Trump doubled down on his awful take. I get that Mr. Reiner said awful and nasty things about the President on social media. But when you are the President, you must be the bigger person and take the high road every time. The overall reaction was not one of an emotionally and mentally healthy person. Reactions like this will become more frequent and equally as extreme, if not more so. Of course, President Trump would never consider resigning. This is akin to losing in his book and he honestly does not have a mentally healthy approach to losing.

9.  The Ohio State Buckeyes will repeat as college football champions defeating the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and the Los Angeles Rams will win the Super Bowl over the Houston Texans. The Michigan Wolverines will beat the Arizona Wildcats for the college basketball national championship.

10.  Venezuela promises to be a hot spot in the world in 2026. This is ultimately about the oil. Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world. Larger than Saudi Arabia, larger than any Middle Eastern country and most definitely more than either Russia or the United States. And yet, their economy is on the verge of collapse (how does that happen with that much oil? – See below)

I want to close out with thoughts about a couple of things that made advances in the marketplace of ideas in 2025. When I was a fresh-faced rookie equity analyst back in the early 1990’s, I was given a great piece of advice. That advice was that these are the five most dangerous words on Wall Street: “It is different this time.” The words not only apply to Wall Street, but to all parts of life. Yes, people have different tools and different toys at their disposal, but human nature has not changed since Biblical times and will not change in the future. When you argue that it is different this time, you are saying that human nature will change. It never will. I thought about this as I saw two recycled – and failed – ideas from the past come forward again in 2025. Those two ideas are: 1. Tariffs and 2. Socialism. President Trump has made tariffs a foundational piece of his economic program. But I do not think he really knows what a tariff is. A tariff is a tax, pure and simple. It is a tax paid by the end consumer. I believe that President Trump thinks that other countries will dip into their Treasuries to pay the tariffs. Nothing could be further from the truth. There is not one school of economic thought that says that higher taxes – whether it is a tariff, a higher income tax, or an increase in any other tax – produces widespread prosperity. In fact, every school of economics believes that taxes hold down economic growth. As for socialism, it always sounds appealing in theory, but in practice has produced miserable results. In the present debate of “Socialism vs Capitalism,” I will always side with capitalism. Socialism revolves around state ownership of the means of production, and governments have proven them highly inefficient allocators of capital. A recent article (https://bit.ly/4saAppt) explains it well and echoes my beliefs on this subject. I am a big believer in free markets and free enterprise. I am also a big believer in the idea that human nature does not change.

I feel as though I must apologize to the reader for such a pessimistic outlook for 2026. I hope that in many ways, I am wrong in my outlook. If you made it this far, thank you for reading.

I wish everyone a blessed 2026 with much love to all.

Where Does The Love of God Go?

 

This past November 10 marked the 50^th anniversary of the sinking of the freighter, The Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior. Twenty-nine men lost their lives as the ship sank to the bottom of the lake. This event was forever memorialized about a year later as Canadian folk singer Gordon Lightfoot (1938-2023) wrote, recorded and released his hit song, “The Wreck of The Edmund Fitzgerald.” This is one of the most haunting songs I have ever listened to, but one part of the song really stands out to me. He has just sung about the final wreck of the big ship and then there is a musical bridge which is both eerie and terrifying at the same time. The bridge fades out, the music softens and Mr. Lightfoot comes back and sings this line: “Does anyone know where the love of God goes when the waves turn the minutes to hours?”

Gordon Lightfoot was a terrific storyteller and this song was a masterpiece. The question he asks above hits hard. For those raised in church, the easy answer is that God’s love is always there and never leaves. Our God is an awesome God! Yet, the easy answer leaves you unsettled and unsatisfied when life hits you hard and knocks you down. For me those moments when “the waves turned the minutes to hours” were when Angie died. All of us have moments like that, whether it is tragedy or betrayal or something else sinister. Like I am prone to do, I turned to the word of God for answers. Again, what I found was troubling. 1 Kings 19 tells us how the prophet Elijah ran as far as he could from Queen Jezebel (that name just sounds wicked) after she had sent a messenger to Elijah. The messenger relayed that the Queen was sending an army of men after him to slaughter him in the next 24 hours. Elijah had slaughtered the prophets of the god Baal after challenging them to call their god and they failed, as told in 1 Kings 18. It is quite a humorous story. Then we get to verses 11 & 12 in Chapter 19 that say, “The Lord said, “Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the Lord, for the Lord is about to pass by. Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the Lord, but the Lord was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the Lord was not in the earthquake. After the earthquake came a fire, but the Lord was not in the fire.” I have always been told that I worship an omnipotent God, that he is everywhere all the time. Yet this tells us that He was not in the powerful wind, that he was not in the earthquake and he was not in the fire. Where was He? And where was He when Jesus cried out on the cross, “My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?” (Matthew 27:46 & Mark 15:34) And no doubt, God was not in the storm that night on Lake Superior. Verse 12 goes on to tell us that the voice of God is a whisper, implying that we need to find ourselves in a quiet moment to truly hear His voice.

I will state here that I do not doubt that God loves me, that He is Almighty and all powerful. But, sometimes I have questions. We all have questions, and that is good. For the time being I leave this question without a good answer. And sometimes not getting a good answer is all I get for now. I keep pursuing the answer, knowing by faith that the answer will be revealed to me.

I will close out with another master storytelling song from Mr. Lightfoot, my personal favorite of his, “Carefree Highway.” It is a story of reminiscing about a love lost. I think of the Carefree Highway in Arizona, a 30-mile stretch of road that is north/northwest of Phoenix. For those not familiar with the highway system in Phoenix, they name their highways. If you are driving on I-10 in Phoenix, you are actually on the Maricopa Freeway (Phoenix is in Maricopa County, Arizona). I have spent a small portion of my life in Arizona, particularly the Phoenix/Scottsdale area and I have many fond memories. Everything from a summer job while I was in college (1988) to a guys’ weekend golf trip to spring break trips with my sons. Obviously, I highly recommend Arizona. The Grand Canyon remains the most amazing place I have ever seen. Still on my bucket list is a trip to Sedona. Back to Mr. Lightfoot’s song. In it, he sings an unforgettable line to me: “Now the thing that I call living is just being satisfied with knowing I got no one left to blame.” So give me a convertible (I’ll settle for an open sunroof), an open stretch of highway basking in the sun, some good tunes turned up loud and not a care in the world. Carefree Highway, let me slip away on you!

Raiders and Reunions

This past weekend, I attended my 40th high school class reunion (Shawnee Mission South class of 1985). Something happened at the events that I attended that left me amazed - I thoroughly enjoyed myself. Before I go further, I will happily acknowledge that those who put on the events that I attended - particularly the main event on Saturday night - did a terrific job and put on a wonderful reunion. They deserve all the credit in the world, and I am happy to throw that credit their way.

This was not about rehashing all the stupid stuff we did in high school. I'm sure there were some memories recounted during the evening, but it was about connecting with people and where they are today. There were plenty of smiles, laughs and hugs all around. These were all very good things. I enjoyed conversations with people that I barely said two words to in high school. But the connection today, even though it was only a few moments, was priceless. That was then, this is now. I also enjoyed seeing a few people for the first time since high school and hearing about their lives today.

I am not the same person that I was forty years ago, and for that I am grateful. If I am the same person today that I was then, what was the point of the last forty years? Each of us has had the whole range of experiences that have shaped who we are today. And it is a little bit different for each of us. And yet, in so many ways, we are all very similar. I loved hearing about it all. My favorite observation for the evening came from the lady who said that all she wanted from the reunion was the see everyone and know that we are happy in life. So simple, yet so beautiful. I completely agree with that sentiment.

Thank you to all who said hi and took the time to visit with me. I enjoyed the moments and enjoyed hearing about where your lives are these days. Thank you once again to those who organized the events of the weekend. It was a resounding success! We were a damn good class and for those few moments, I truly understood that there is nothing greater than a Raider!!

Letting Go

"Memories
Light the corners of my mind
Misty watercolor memories
Of the way we were"

Barbara Streisand, The Way We Were, 1973

I have been undergoing a massive downsizing. Going from about 3,600 sq ft to 800 means you learn about things like minimalism and you learn what you really need and do not need. Downsizing can also be quite a spiritual cleansing as you clear out the physical clutter in your life. De-cluttering does not mean just get rid of everything. You learn what things you have truly serves your soul and has value, purpose and meaning in your life.

This weekend has been an example of this in my life as I went through countless sympathy cards from 25 years ago. I realized something as I looked through them - they were no longer comforting. The cards no longer contained any value or purpose in my life. Please understand that I am forever grateful to those who took the time to express their condolences to my family and me during that devestating time. The words meant a lot to us all and provided much needed comfort. The cards and letters were eventually gathered up and buried deep in the crevices of excess storage, not to be seen again until this past weekend. I knew as I read them again that they were no longer needed. My life has moved forward, my kids' lives have moved forward, and that is good. The cards, letters and their words were good in that time and space. I am no longer in that time and space. All the condolences could do was take me back to that time that I would rather forget. 

I did choose to keep three letters which are still meaningful. The first was from one of Angie's former roommates at Baylor, who addressed the letter to my sons. The letter brought out Angie's ability to love deeply. The second was from one of her former colleagues at Ecolab who really highlighted the respect she garnered in her profession. The third was from The First Baptist Church of South Pittsburg, Tennessee. This church had a ministry at the time that would send volunteers to local hospitals to visit and bring comfort to those who were suffering. There were several members of that church who came to the hospital and played with the boys (keeping them distracted) while I was being treated for a broken collarbone. The pastor's wife, sizing up the situation, went to Wal Mart and bought some overnight clothes for the boys and grabbed some her husband's clothes for me (apparently, we were roughly the same size). I will never forget the kindness and generosity of those people who came and stayed for several hours. In my attempt to repay their kindness (which I could never truly do), I sent a donation to the church and a check to the pastor's family to repay them for their out-of-pocket expense. 

I received a letter back from the church, signed by the pastor, thanking me for my donation. As I read it further, I was struck by the fact that he was hoping to purchase hand bells and create a permanent hand bell choir that would make beautiful music for many years. Hand bells really do make a beautiful sound, and when done well are joyful. Angie loved hand bells and to think that out of something so devestating, something beautiful could arise does bring a sense of happiness to my soul. Another thought has crossed my mind. I never did find out if the church purchased those hand bells. I hope they did!

One final thought. I would not recommend listening to Barbra Streisand singing "The Way We Were" while de-cluttering and parting with things from your past. It is a beautiful song, and Ms. Streisand's vocals were flawless in singing this song. But it will tear your guts out.

Scattered pictures

Of the smiles we left behind

Smiles we gave to one another

For the way we were

The Significance of Today

 

Today, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing for their third consecutive Super Bowl championship, a feat never before accomplished. However, the significance of today goes back over 50 years for me. I first became a Chiefs fan back in the early 1970’s when Hank Stram was still the Head Coach and Len Dawson was the Quarterback. The Chiefs had just begun a downward slide that would last in one form or another for 50 years.

I was there for the 18 seasons between 1972-1989 when the Chiefs appeared in just one playoff game. When the Chiefs were coached by people like Paul Wiggin, John Mackovic and Frank Gzanz, and presided over by GM Jack Steadman. I was there during the Marty Schottenheimer years where we enjoyed regular season success but suffered heartbreaking playoff defeats. Marty also suffered the same fate in Cleveland, producing regular season success and two heartbreaking defeats against Denver in 1986 and 1987. In Kansas City, Schottenheimer took the Chiefs to the doorstep of the Super Bowl in 1993 before losing to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Then came crushing defeats against the Indianapolis Colts in 1995 and the Denver Broncos in 1997. Thus began a 21-season stretch between 1994-2014 where the Chiefs would not win a single playoff game. This would include home playoff losses to the Colts in 2003, and the Baltimore Ravens in 2010 and an inexplicable loss to the Colts (they sure show up here a lot) in 2013 where the Chiefs blew a 38-10 lead. This was another lost period for the Chiefs as they were coached by the likes of Herm Edwards, Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel. Then came more heartbreak with home playoff losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2016, the Tennessee Titans in 2017 and the New England Patriots in 2018.

The New England defeat in the 2018 AFC Championship Game still ranks (and will probably forever rank) as the most heartbreaking defeat I have experienced as a Chiefs fan. Nothing will ever top the Royals-Yankees Game 5 in 1977 in the heartbreaking defeat department, but this was a very close second. I watched with absolute joy as the Chiefs intercepted a Tom Brady pass with about 1:30 to go in the game and the Chiefs up 28-24. Only to watch it all evaporate with an offside penalty on Dee Ford that gave the great Tom Brady the opening he needed. Needless to say, Brady and the Patriots took full advantage. What would it take for the Chiefs to break through? How much more could a long suffering Chiefs fan take?

This is where I close with some reality (I am forever a realist).  As a Chiefs fan, with this kind of history, I have felt eternally blessed by the past six seasons. We have all certainly been blessed. There are plenty of others who are much more die hard fans than I, who have a longer history with this organization. Today is for these fans. I know that no fan of any team is entitled to a winning season, much less a championship season. At the end of the day, this is just a football game. I do not put my hopes and dreams in a bunch of football players, or in a football team. To see a team that I have rooted for all my life have a chance not only at a championship season, but to make history is just cool! GO CHIEFS!!

Ten Things For 2025

 

Coming up with a “Ten Things For 2025” list has admittedly been quite difficult. This stems from the fact that 2024 ended up being a year marked by civil unrest, dramatically shifting voting patterns in the election, and a big shift in how people access their news and how they perceive those who deliver the news. The financial markets displayed a great deal of confusion, but in the end, stocks were way up and the rally appeared more broad-based. Going into 2025, things are smooth on the surface, but there is a lot going on underneath that will eventually come to the surface.

Every December, Byron Wien who was the former US Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley would issue his “10 Surprises” column for the upcoming year. He defined surprises as events that were outside the consensus thinking, but which he thought had a better than 50% probability of happening. I imagine that Mr. Wien would have a field day with the current conditions. This is my inspiration for what I call my “10 Things,” for the upcoming year. Mr. Wien’s focus for his “10 Surprises” list focused on the economy and markets. And I do have some predictions in this area.  Some of my Things are in line with consensus thinking and some will be way outside of the consensus. Last year, two of my predictions for 2024 came through. I had said then that Joe Biden would not be the Democrat’s nominee for President and that the Federal Reserve would only cut interest rates twice (consensus was for 6 cuts). The Fed cut rates for the third time this year just yesterday.

This past year has been one of civil unrest, most notably shown in the two assassination attempts on Presidential candidate Donald Trump. United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson was assassinated and CashApp co-founder Bob Lee were also murdered, both in targeted hits. San Francisco 49ers first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall was shot during an attempted robbery. Fortunately, he recovered and played for the 49ers this season. Unfortunately, I think we will see a lot of continued civil unrest in 2025.

Stock market is way overvalued. Stocks do not go into bear markets simply because they are overvauled. They keep going up until they don't. There is usually some sort of financial event that creates a bear market, and the conditions seem to be getting more and more ripe for some sort of credit event to occur.

Economy built on a mountain of debt. Personal debt, government debt is off the charts. Interest on federal government debt is at a record high. This is going to get worse as 5-year and 10-year Treasury notes mature and are rolled over into higher interest rate notes. Initial projections for FY 2025 budget deficit ran $2.3 billion. That budget deficit is now projected to run over $3 trillion. Household debt is manageable as long as employment stays strong. But cracks are developing there. Over the past 16 months, full-time employment (the highest quality jobs) has declined by 1.4 million. The entire creation of jobs over that time has come from contract jobs, gig economy jobs, part-time and seasonal jobs. Further cracks in employment could spell big trouble for household debt, and we may already be seeing this in credit card debt.

Now, onto my “Ten Things For 2025”:

1.      The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate action in 2025 will be to raise interest rates. We have seen 3 rate cuts in 2024, and this has been followed by higher inflation readings and higher long-term rates. The combination of lower short-term rates and higher long-term rates is called the steepening of the yield curve. A steepening yield curve is generally interpreted as a positive event for the economy, and I do expect to see some strong economic numbers coming in the first half of 2025. The Fed has indicated that they are in no hurry to cut rates further. There may not be any rate actions in 2025, but if we do see signs of an over-heating economy, the Fed will be raising rates. They do not want to repeat the mistake of 2021 in which they called inflation “transitory” and that no increases were needed. Inflation only became transitory because the Fed raised rates.

2.      The stock market will return 10% in 2025. I see all the gains coming in the first half of the year and then we will see a flattening out of returns in the second half.

3.      There will be a credit event in 2025. Debt is basically funding all of the strength in the US economy. Debt is one of those areas that show on the surface that things are manageable, the trends appear to be going in the wrong direction. Overall household debt is at a record $17.94 trillion dollars. Credit card debt, which is at a record high $1.17 trillion is particularly concerning. Delinquency rates are still manageable, but that rate has more than doubled since Q3 2021 (1.5% to 3.2%) and it is quickly heading toward problem areas (4%-5%). The current rate is higher than pre-pandemic levels and the highest rate since 2012. The recent stock market rally has also been funded with debt. Margin debt was $890 billion at the end of November, representing a 35% year-over-year increase. Any drop in stock prices could trigger margin calls, which will make that problem even worse. While I am not foreseeing a major credit event in 2025, it will be big enough to be noticed.

4.      Online sports gambling will become a mini-epidemic. The lure of easy money – a tale as old as time. I have a friend who once made the observation that all those fancy casinos in Las Vegas were not built on the backs of gamblers who won. And yet many will try and very, very few will succeed. My guess is that many of those gambling accounts are being funded with credit card debt, which creates a bigger problem with overall debt. Many men get into sports betting because they think they know sports. They have no idea that sports and sports betting are two different things (largely because of odds and point spreads). This problem could also be a manifestation of a bigger societal problem of young men “opting out” of society.

5.      MSNBC will cease to exist as a political commentary channel. Comcast, which owns both NBC News and MSNBC, has announced that they will split up their company next year and NBC News will be split from MSNBC. This is the tell for me as a political commentary channel really needs the strength of a news organization to back it up. Having the backing of a news channel typically adds credibility to the commentary. With MSNBC, the ratings have dropped throughout the year and that drop has accelerated since the election. Being an obvious shill for a political party that is deeply out of favor does not help their cause. Already, we have seen headlines about the on-air talent being offered pay cuts. It is too little, too late. I see the spin-off company wanting to do something like sports or entertainment with this channel.

6.      X (formerly Twitter) will gain momentum as a news source. X owner Elon Musk has been a big proponent of free speech with X, generating mixed results. The 2024 election was, in part, a referendum on the mainstream media, and the MSM did not fare well (which helps explain point #5 above). X was the big winner, with more people turning away from the MSM and towards X. While X is a bit of a Wild West show, with all its messiness, chaos and misinformation, it does need to be noted that the single biggest piece of misinformation during the 2024 election came from the mainstream media and that was the idea that Joe Biden was fit to run for re-election. The messiness of X was on that right away (with a mountain of video evidence), questioning the President’s fitness for office while the MSM swallowed the White House propaganda without question. When President Biden has his disastrous debate vs Donald Trump in June, no one on X was surprised while the MSM felt betrayed.

7.      President Trump will see virtually of his legislatively packages pass in both houses of Congress. The surprise here is that I think we will see at least a small degree of bipartisanship in all of it.

8.      Georgia wins the CFP in January, the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl in February, and the Florida Gators win the NCAA Basketball Championship in April. Let's face it, if I get one of these three right, it will be a minor miracle.

9.      The Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central, and the Baylor Bears will win the 2025 Big 12 football championship. I am so excited about these two teams next year that they deserve their own line. Plus, I am a deep-seated fan of both, and this is my list and I need this to get me to 10! 

10.  All my best wishes to each of you that 2025 will be better than 2024. For me personally, 2024 has been a very difficult year, and I know that it has been difficult for many others as well. Yet I always look to the future with hope, and I always rest in a God that gives me peace through the most difficult of times. Happy 2025 everyone!

For The Love Of A Ball

I love this baseball. I still remember the day we got it.  June 18, 2004. The first time that I took my boys to Omaha, NE for a College World Series (CWS) game. I was going through some stuff here at home the other day and I came across it. Seeing this ball took me back to that day. To appreciate my love for this ball, a little background is necessary. If you remember, about a month ago, I wrote about that most awful day in my life – June 18, 1999. In 2004, I was coming upon the 5^th anniversary of that day and I knew I needed to do something to get my mind off it. As part of my efforts to find the thing to get my mind off it, I pulled out an atlas, thinking that getting out of town would help. I started circling Kansas City with my index finger, making bigger circles until I hit Omaha. That’s it! I knew the CWS was coming up, so I checked the schedule, and sure enough there was a game at 1:30pm that day (it was a Saturday). I asked the boys if they wanted to go, and they were all for it!

Saturday the 18^th came and it was a beautiful day and we made the drive up. What I found outside the stadium was just a really neat atmosphere, as there were a bunch of houses set up as party central for the duration of the series. Unfortunately, the NCAA considered this “riff raff” and getting rid of it was part of the inspiration to build the new stadium. But I digress. It was just really cool outside of Rosenblatt Stadium. Rosenblatt itself was a cool stadium. And I was able to score second row seats just past third base. We had settled into our seats to watch the California State-Fullerton Titans take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The pitchers had warmed up in the bullpen and were heading towards the dugout. As he made his way towards the dugout to get ready to start the game, South Carolina catcher Landon Powell tossed this ball to 7-year-old Brent. The game had not even started and our day was already made!

What a day! Sunny, not a cloud in the sky. No humidity and a high temperature of about 80 degrees. The perfect Chamber of Commerce day! Cal State-Fullerton would go on to win the game 2-0. I found out later that this was the first shutout at the CWS in over 10 years. I hit a home run that day with this trip. Fullerton would go on the win that series. The next year, my alma mater, Baylor, made the CWS so the boys and I had to go see them play. And a tradition was born. I ended up taking the boys to Omaha 8 times for CWS games. These were some of my most favorite and treasured memories of their childhood. I am so glad I got to see 7 games in Johnny Rosenblatt Stadium. Rosenblatt is a quirky, yet charming ballpark. I made one game in the new stadium. It is a beautiful stadium, but it lacks the charm of the old ballpark. For one absolutely perfect afternoon, I got to forget about life for awhile and I loved it.

This game also helped restore some of my lost love for the game of baseball. I had soured on the game after the strike in 1994 and the subsequent decline of my beloved Royals. But watching the way these kids played the game was a joy. All out hustle. They all ran out those ground balls. They sprinted to and from the dugout at the start and end of every inning. Just a lot of spirit in those young men that day. That reminded me of why I had loved this game from the time I was a kid of about 3 or 4 years old. Thank you all for reading.

A Long Strange Trip - Twenty-Five Years

 

June 18, 1999. Worst day of my life. Twenty-five years ago today, my wife Angie, the love of my life, died in an automobile accident. I was told the day after her funeral that I would grieve her death the rest of my life. History has proven that to be true. The twenty-five years since have been one long, strange trip. I do not write this to elicit sympathy. Please do not express any to me. Twenty-five years on, the words will not be comforting, but will only wear on me. Thank you. I do not write this to remember a damn death. I have made my peace with it all. I write this to remember her, and to remember the extraordinary acts of kindness shown to me by so many. I hope that you, as my reader, will maybe gain some perspective. Finally, I write this to recall some of the ways that grief really messed with me. There is no way to prepare for grief. It overwhelms you, it robs you, and it replaces a lost innocence with a sinister journey that takes way too much time to complete.

I want to start off by giving thanks. I am so grateful to have spent 11 years with Angie, the last 8 as her husband. She understood me, she “got” me. Yes, I was probably difficult at times, a tortured soul of sorts. She loved me anyway. I received more love from Angie during our 11 years together than many people receive in a lifetime. For that, I am eternally grateful. I hope the love I gave back to her was sufficient. She also birthed two of the best sons any man could hope for, and I am so proud of them both. For that, I am also eternally grateful. Do I wish I could have her back? More than you could ever know. I know that will not happen and I am at peace with that.

The afternoon of the accident, I experienced one of the greatest acts of kindness I have ever known. One of the local churches had a ministry that would send people to hospitals to comfort families like ours. Imagine getting a call about 3:00pm on a Friday afternoon asking you to go to the hospital in Jasper, Tennessee to comfort a family from Kansas that had two small kids and whose mother had just died in an accident out on I-24. They came, they played with my kids and kept them distracted and kept them away from the other patients in the hospital. The pastor’s wife came to the hospital, sized up the situation and could see that we would need an overnight change of clothes (the wrecked car with our suitcases had been towed to a salvage yard that was closed for the night). She went to Wal-Mart and got some stuff for the boys and let me take some of her husband’s clothes since he and I were about the same size. I still have the shorts she gave me as a reminder of all the people there and the tremendous kindness and generosity they showed me.

I look back at the early days of my grief and wonder how I have made it this far. Many acts of kindness helped. People from my Sunday School class brought dinner over for the boys and me. I remember a childhood next-door neighbor of mine and one of her best friends brought me dinner one evening. I was so absorbed in my own grief and so numb that I was undoubtedly lousy company. They stayed with me anyway and ate dinner with me that evening. Another time, I remember a long-time friend took me to a Royals game. Nothing better in the summertime than a ballgame. Again I was numb and absorbed in my own grief and was terrible company. Today, I can look back on those times and realize just how bad I was and just how tremendous the kindness and generosity of friends really was in those days. There were so many other instances of kindness displayed towards me and I will forever appreciate it. Thank you to all who showed kindness and grace to me in those days.

Grief will mess with your mind in ways that you cannot even fathom. There is simply no way to overstate this. There is no way to prepare for grief because it is overwhelming. Some of your thoughts during these times are appalling. I consider myself to be a man of Christian faith, and that was really messed with. There were times when my “prayers” consisted of me yelling at God. I was pissed. I had been handed a life that I wanted no part of, and for which I felt wholly unqualified. I never wanted to be widowed. I never wanted to be a single parent. Yet there I was in that life that I never wanted. In Genesis 2:18, “The Lord God said, ‘It is not good for the man to be alone. I will make a helper suitable for him.’” Boy, did I let God hear about that! In the midst of all this, I had a friend tell me, “If you keep yelling, God will keep listening.” Such comforting words that I will never forget. Who am I to tell God these kinds of things? I am sure that I had many other inappropriate thoughts during this time that leave me appalled at myself today. These days, I am sure grateful to worship a forgiving God.

I need to back up a bit here. I mentioned above that I never wanted to be a single parent. I meant that. There were many times where I looked at my sons as objects that trapped me in some hopeless rut. I would never wish single parenthood on anyone. But, I love my two sons more than anything. They were cheated so early on. To their credit, they never used their Mother’s death as a crutch. Throughout their childhood, I could see times where Angie’s absence stole a piece from my boys. And that pissed me off. I cannot imagine my life without them. I love them more deeply today than I ever thought possible.

I have mentioned anger, and I felt plenty. I learned all about the five stages of grief. Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. After the tragic death of a loved one, you immediately go into denial. It is a wonderful coping mechanism that helps protect you from harm and keeps you from feeling. You need that in the immediate aftermath. I found that the next three stages are fluid. I never went chronologically from one to the next. I might find myself saying I’d give it all back in a heartbeat to have her back. The next day I might find myself angry. Even as you are going through all these stages, you want your life to be “normal.” Your life will never be normal again. As you seek out your new normal, you will find that life does start to feel normal again. But only in pieces. Life will be going well, then bam! Something will hit you out of the blue and it will knock you back. One step forward, two steps back. Gradually, this will transition to two steps forward, one step back.

Grief left me feeling incomplete, unlovable and with the feeling of sticking out in a crowd for all the wrong reasons. I felt like a damn freak show at times. For me, the biggest part of me had been ripped away, never to come back. I had invested many of my hopes and dreams for the future in her. Just like that, it was all gone. I didn’t give a damn about anything in those days. It was impossible. Quite honestly, those two boys of mine, those who made me feel trapped at times, kept me going. I knew that regardless of what happened, they deserved a future. And their best future was going to be with their Dad around to be a part of their lives. That kept me going.

I have a cousin who once gave me some wonderful advice about dealing with grief. She said that “it will find its place” in your life. This cousin experienced the tragic death of her 6-year-old son, so she spoke to me from a place of wisdom and experience. I have not forgotten those words. This is where I come to acceptance. It took me years to come to that acceptance. It meant coming to terms with and accepting a life that I never wanted, a life that I hated. That was the first step in true acceptance, and that was hard. When you are deep in grief, you do not think in terms of “this gives me the opportunity to build a new life, this give me a do-over.” You are so focused on what you lost. In my case, what I lost was tremendous, and I still had (hopefully) a long life ahead of me. I have come to accept this life I have now. It is not anywhere close to where I want it to be, and it never will be. But I can go forward from here, everyday, and hopefully make a life that will bring me happiness and joy.

As I remember these last 25 years, I am reminded of the words of one of my favorite hymns:

When peace like a river attendeth my way

When sorrows like sea billows roll

Whatever my lot, Thou hast taught me to say

It is well, it is well with my soul

I hope that you, the reader, found some blessing in all this. This was tough to write, but also a labor of love. I knew I had to write this. Angie deserves a tribute.  Plenty of memories come back on a day like this. That is what makes this tough. I am so fortunate that I was married to someone who was so unforgettable to me. And I wish she was still here with me. Blessings to all.

President's Day - Who Are These Guys?

 

As we celebrate President’s Day, I will take this opportunity to make some of my observations of these men, and their humanity and how it has played a vital role in their performance in office. I am no historian, I am just a guy who has had a lifelong fascination with the office and the men who have occupied it. There is no perfect President. Every one of these guys was corrupt in some manner or another. Some much more so than others. But what makes a good President to me is one who gets the big things right. The number on big thing is the economy, the second is foreign policy and advancing American interests worldwide. Regarding the economy, I do not want a President that seeks to micromanage the economy, but one that creates favorable conditions for economic prosperity for now and after he leaves office.

I will keep my observations to the Presidents who have occupied the office during my lifetime. I was born during the Lyndon Johnson Presidency. We have seen the whole gamut of humanity from happy and optimistic to paranoid and prickly. I do not attempt to rank these men from best to worst. Just to comment on their humanity, their strengths and weaknesses and how that affected the mindset that they brought to the office.  Without further ado, let’s get started.

The Paranoid President – Richard Nixon Nixon is quite possibly the most intellectually gifted man to occupy the Presidency during my lifetime. I will watch YouTube interviews that he did back in the 1980s and be mesmerized by his thoughtfulness and his overall intelligence. Yet he thought the world was out to get him. He was not altogether wrong, as it is well known that the Washington press hated him. But it led him to do things like put together an enemies list, raid journalists offices, and ultimately try to bug the phones at the Democratic National Headquarters at the Watergate office complex. It was that last act that ultimately brought down his Presidency. I know it is hard to believe but some historians have speculated that Nixon might have gone down as a great President if it were not for Watergate. I do not completely agree with this analysis. While he was the best at foreign policy, his domestic policies leave a lot of room for doubt.  His appointment of Arthur Burns as Federal Reserve chairman – and Burns’s easy money policies – led to the record high inflation that we would see in the late 1970’s.

The “Do Nothing” President – Bill Clinton Obviously, those of us who remember the 1990’s would see the “do nothing” label as a misnomer. We all remember that there was a lot of “doing” going on the White House during those days, mostly between the President and any female not named his wife. And this cost him a lot of political capital with the American people. Clinton came to Washington with an ambitious agenda, but when the Republicans took both houses of Congress in 1994, that put it all on hold. The overall lack of legislative accomplishment actually helped his Presidency. He inherited a strong economy, and it remained strong all throughout his Presidency. Clinton deserves credit here because – and this is saying a mouthful – he did not screw it up. Clinton was a great politician. He knew how to read a room. He was great at both speaking to a large audience and one-on-one. He was the master at finding a long line and getting in front of it. Because he didn’t screw it up, I ultimately rate him as an above average President.

The Underrated President – Jimmy Carter  Jimmy Carter is widely viewed as having a failed Presidency. Most notably, Carter took the blame for the inflation of the late 1970’s, which topped out at about 12.5% in 1980. However, Carter took the single most significant step to beating back that inflation by appointing Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chairman in 1979. Carter was clearly the most good and decent man to occupy the office during my lifetime and perhaps of all time. He did some remarkably good things as President. First on the list was the peace agreement that he brokered between Egypt and Israel. A peace agreement that undoubtedly went a long way towards costing Egyptian President Anwar Sadat his life. The Carter Administration was also responsible for deregulating the airline, trucking and brewery industries. Funny that Carter’s successor, Ronald Reagan, was seen the Great Deregulator, yet that title belongs to Carter. I view all these moves as being positive overall. Carter had his downside, as he was prickly and difficult to deal with, even with his fellow Democrats in Congress. He also made some notable mistakes at the beginning of the Iranian Hostage Crisis that prolonged that crisis far beyond what was needed (although he deserves credit for getting the hostages home alive). Finally, his overall leadership skills left something to be desired.

The Happy President – Ronald Reagan A few years ago my Dad took a trip to California to visit my sisters living out there and a trip to the Reagan Presidential Library was part of that trip. The overwhelming observation that my Dad had of Reagan after visiting the library was that Reagan was a genuinely happy man. That was not the type of observation that came naturally to my Dad, so this struck me. We do remember Reagan being endlessly optimistic. This upbeat, optimistic outlook undoubtedly served him and this country well during the early days of his Presidency as the country went through a horrifying recession in 1980-82. Actually, a double dip recession as a result of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker’s fight against inflation. The recession would have happened whether Reagan won in 1980 or Carter was re-elected. I do not think that Jimmy Carter could have effectively led the US through that recession. Reagan did. By 1982, inflation was down to 4%, which is about where it would remain throughout the 1980’s. Of course, we really saw Reagan’s good humor in the immediate aftermath of a failed assassination attempt in 1981, an attempt that left 4 wounded including the President. His relentless belief in America, and in the American free enterprise system bordered on complete idealism. It was this idealism that led to the United States winning the Cold War against the Soviet Union, and led to the INF treaty in 1987 that would eliminate an entire class of nuclear weapons. Reagan deservingly gets a lot of credit for winning the Cold War, but not nearly enough. He saw to it that it was won relatively peacefully, as we never engaged the Soviet Union in a direct confrontation, and the regional spats never spread into a large global conflict. Finally, Reagan was never seen as an intellectual of any kind, but he had the best leadership skills of any President of my lifetime. What I will most remember about Reagan was that in 1980 and throughout his Presidency he told us that America’s best days were ahead of it, not behind it. In 1980 that was a very difficult thing to say. From 1973-1980, America lost a war in Southeast Asia, saw a Presidency brought down in utter disgrace, endured record breaking inflation (and loss of tons of purchasing power in spite of record income gains), an embarrassing hostage situation in Iran and so-called “intellectual elites” saying that our children and all future generations of Americans would have to get used to lower living standards, and that Communism was a competing, but equal, economic system to American free enterprise. History has been kind to Reagan, not so kind to the so-called “smart people” Obviously, I rate Reagan an above average President.

The Childish President – Donald Trump  No matter what you may think of a President’s policies or his overall demeanor, the very minimal expectation that we should have of any officeholder is that they act like an adult. Instead, we elected this man who disrespected the military service of John McCain, who spent 5 ½  years as a POW in the Hanoi Hilton, one of the world’s most horrifying POW camps. He mocked the disability of a handicapped reporter, in an utterly gross display. Trump has no governing center. He is a narcissistic authoritarian. He is not a conservative, not a liberal, not really an anything. He will do what is best for Trump. He will sell his supporters down the river in a heartbeat if he has to. And they think he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread? He said we would get sick of all the winning? I am still wondering where it all is. A great leader brings out the best in all of us. He brings out the worst in all of us, both his supporters and his opponents. I never admired him as a businessman, he has zero leadership skills. Quite honestly, his Administration probably did some good things, but it all got lost in his inflammatory and damaging rhetoric. Needless to say, I rate him a below average President.

Ten Things For 2024

 

Ten Things For 2024

 

As some of you may know, I like to do a “Ten Things…” for the upcoming year. I draw this inspiration from a man named Byron Wien would compile a list of “Ten Surprises” for the upcoming year. I first ran across his work when he was a big shot at Morgan Stanley in the 1990’s. Unfortunately, Mr. Wien passed away in October at the age of 90. So now you, my dear reader, are just simply stuck with me. In the same vein as Mr. Wien, I will concentrate on the financial markets, although with 2024 being a presidential election year, I will have a few comments about that. With all that in mind, here are my ten things:

1.      Inflation Is Not Dead Yet Over the past 18 months, inflation has really dropped, going from a high of 9.1% in June 2022 to a current level of 3.1%, per the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is being hailed as a hero for bringing down inflation without creating a recession. I am predicting that inflation will be higher at the end of 2024 than it is today. Why? Why am I seeing that respected stock market investors, strategists and commentators are recommending stock market sectors like metals, commodities, real estate and energy? These sectors scream inflation to me. When the greatest stock market investor of all time is making significant purchases of an oil stock, that is going to get my attention.

2.      We might get one or two interest rate cuts in early 2024, but by the end of the year, speculation will center on when the fed will raise rates. If inflation indeed does rear its ugly head again 2024, can talk of interest rate hikes be far behind? Right now, the talk is of interest rate cuts, as the fed put in its latest minutes. I have never bought into a rate cut at this time. I still think the money supply is too high.

3.      The one word to describe the economy: uncertain. Right now, everything is humming nicely. There is a scary underside to all this. The consumer is holding record levels of credit card debt, record levels of mortgage debt and record levels of car debt. Notice a pattern? Credit card debt is the scariest to me. A couple of years ago, I wrote that I thought the economy would be in a recession by now. I am clearly wrong on that, but why? Employment has held up better than I thought it would. But this economy is literally a house of (credit) cards. If employment cracks, it will fall fast and it will fall hard. It is hard for me to say that the good times will keep on rolling. However, if employment holds up, things will continue for awhile. I am not sure which way to lean on this.

4.      The AI bubble will burst. The stock market has been all about The Magnificent Seven this year. These stocks are some of the leaders at the cutting edge of the latest technology craze, Artificial Intelligence. Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla have combined to account for about 70% of the S&P 500 index return this year. The index is up nearly 26% this year. Without the Magnificent Seven, the return would be about 6 – 7%. If inflation comes back (see #1 above), these seven stocks will be in for a big ride down. Usually such extremely narrow leadership is quite bearish for stocks in general, and especially for the leaders.

5.      The world will be relatively quiet. This is coming from a purely American centric point of view. War continues in Ukraine and in the Middle East.  None of the parties involved seemed interested in any sort of peace. So, the tragedies and atrocities of war go on. But I do not see anything headline grabbing occurring in these places.

6.      President Biden will not be the Democrat’s nominee for President. The Presidential election next year will be the biggest news event of the year in this country. Right now, the President’s poll numbers are in the high 30’s. And that is with a relatively strong economy and very low unemployment. Polls starting to show the President losing the election next year are deeply concerning to Democrats. Vice-President Harris will not ascend to the nomination. It will be someone else, with the name I hear a lot being Gavin Newsom.

7.      Travis Kelce will get engaged to Taylor Swift if you care about that sort of thing which I do not.

8.      The San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl if you care about that sort of thing, which I do. Not sure who they will beat, but the one team I know they will not beat is the Kansas City Chiefs. Too many distractions, too many issues for the Chiefs this year.

9.      The Kansas City Royals will win the American League Central in 2024. The Royals have made some interesting additions to their pitching staff this offseason, while nobody else in the division has done anything significant. Going from 56 wins to division championship is a tall task, but not impossible in this case.

10.  2024 can be a great year for all of us! And with that I close this out. May 2024 bring you peace, health and prosperity. Not just for you, but for your family and your friends. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone!