The Internet Stock Bubble, Climate Science & Trusting The Experts

I found myself rather amused at the reaction on both my Twitter feed and my Facebook feed regarding President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Change Accord last week.  I will be the first to admit that I am not well versed on the science involved.  I neither subscribe wholeheartedly to the idea that climate change is real, nor to the idea that it is a complete hoax.  If anything, I lean slightly to the idea that it is real.  Yet I am not at all alarmed by the President’s decision.  I do not believe for a second that our withdrawal is some sort of “murdering the earth” or “flipping Mother Nature the middle finger” gesture.  Why not?  Simply put, I have seen this sort of thing before, and it does not end well for the experts.

In mulling this over, I recalled a terrific piece of advice I received about investments that translates well to human reaction to hysteria, a Bible verse, and my own experience with the wisdom of the experts.  The advice came from an old boss, Howard Jacobson, as I started my job as an Equity Analyst at UMB.  He told me to pay attention to the Wall Street analysts who said “Sell” when all others said “Buy” and vice versa.  In other words, do not follow the crowd, because you are likely to get stampeded on the way in and again on the way out.  This does not mean to blindly follow a contrarian viewpoint.  Instead, it points to the idea that we should use the brain God gave us to think things through.  Do the work in order to reach your own conclusions, instead of letting others do your thinking for you.  The Bible verse is Isaiah 29:14 “…the wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish.” (NIV)  This speaks to the idea that those who possess great wisdom often possess great arrogance to go with it, and that God will humble those who exalt themselves.  Finally, my own experience with experts is far less than stellar. 

My favorite argument put forth by the pro-climate change crowd is that “97% of the scientific community has concluded that climate change is real.”  No doubt that statement is true.  It is also true that I possess a large dose of that “healthy Midwestern skepticism,” and based on my experience, I have good reason to question the conclusions and recommendations of the scientists.  I go back to the Internet stock bubble of the late 1990’s for my guidance.  The internet stock bubble was one where 97% of the experts agreed that this was a once in a lifetime opportunity, a window of opportunity never to be repeated.  In fact, it was a great opportunity.  The Internet has completely changed the way we live our lives. But has it played out like we thought it would back in 1998?  I doubt it.  For if we had followed the recommended advice of the experts in 1998, chances are we would have all been broke by the end of 2001.  And this is where my skepticism comes full force.

The Internet stock bubble and climate change science seem completely different, so why compare these two?  First, my vantage point.  I was an Equity Analyst at UMB Investment Advisors covering the technology sector at that time.  I was talking to the experts and getting first-hand knowledge.  It was like watching a sporting event live in the arena versus watching it on TV.  You see things in the arena or stadium that the TV camera does not necessarily capture.  It was an exciting time, change was rapid, and there were many great leaps forward.  I saw, and heard, tidbits that were never meant for public consumption.  I remember being in possession of insider information once.  I got to see the formation of the asset bubble up close and in person.  What I saw were the experts proclaiming their infinite wisdom, and I saw their ridicule towards those who did not accept their thinking without question.  I saw first hand how people reacted to the hype and hysteria. I once got my head handed to me by a client who could not understand why I did not have his 70-year-old Mom 100% invested in technology stocks.  No joke!  This man bought into the hype, the experts and the hysteria hook, line and sinker.  And the meeting date?  March 9, 2000 - the very day the NASDAQ index peaked.  No doubt, those who work daily with the leading scientists and experts in the field see a completely different game than those of us who watch it on TV.

Second, similar methodologies.  The internet stock analysts were considered the best and the brightest, often quoted in the mainstream media regarding their analysis and recommendations.  They used sophisticated computer models, updated as new information became available.  They combined regular discussions with various company managements within the industry, discussions with sophisticated institutional investment clients, and with other analysts to supplement their models and make their recommendations. Today's climate scientists are also considered the best and the brightest in their chosen field.  How do climate scientists make their recommendations?  Relying on sophisticated computer models, updated as new information comes in, discussions with other climate scientists, and various industry, academic and government leaders.  Very similar indeed.

Despite the precise nature of computer models, they are far from precise and definitely not perfect.  I remember reading a research report in 1999 which argued the case that one of those internet stocks (I don’t remember which one) was a screaming buy, not just because of its potential growth, but also because it was a great value.  The stock, according to the analyst, was selling at 6x estimated 2010 cash flow.  It was all I could do to keep from falling out of my chair laughing.  Nobody can predict ten years into the future what a company’s cash flow will be with any kind of accuracy.  Today, I doubt the stock is even around.  I cannot imagine the analyst is still plying his trade either.  Climate scientists also use computer modeling, and even with the latest information, it still does not have perfect information to predict the future with certainty.

These models have many different moving parts, whether it is the stock analyst with his earnings estimates or the climate scientist with his climate temperature estimate.  In both cases, even a miniscule deviation in the input data can create a large variance in the actual outcome versus the modeled estimate.  And no one can ever predict the future with 100% certainty.

Another reason I am skeptical of their conclusions centers on the dire consequences they predict without implementing their solutions.  The predictions of dire consequences are intended to create hysteria, and as I pointed out earlier, hysteria is something wise and thoughtful people avoid.  Unfortunately, those leading the hysteria are the politicians, who should be the voice of reason and prudence instead.

If climate change is a real problem, who will solve it, the capitalist or the socialist?  My money is on the capitalist. Why?  The motivation behind it.  The capitalist has an incentive to solve it – profit.  The socialist’s incentive? To maintain government funding.  Solve the problem and the funding goes away.  This gets to the heart of why I am skeptical of their conclusions.  This problem will be solved in bits and pieces, not as part of one gigantic collective effort.  What if we invest in one gigantic, collective effort, and it does not work?  There won’t be enough money for a second chance.  Money will be allocated much more efficiently by the capitalists.  By solving it in smaller chunks, there will be more room for error.

I am excited about the potential for the future of energy.  Fossil fuels are a sunset industry as we move towards cleaner, and ultimately, cheaper fuels.  I think solar has tremendous potential, especially as we harness more of its energy in each panel.  The idea of powering homes with solar energy, and getting houses off the grid is amazing to me.  I would love to get neighborhood power lines taken down.  I also know that is still off in the future.  I am also very interested in what a company like Tesla is doing with cars.  I can see a day in the not too distant future where all new cars will be built without a combustible engine.  But it will come in bits and pieces.

So I come back around to the advice I received, the Bible verse, and my own perspective.  What this has all taught me is never take the conclusions of the experts at face value.  They have been wrong plenty of times.  Eight months ago today, 97% of the experts assured us that Hillary Clinton would be our President today.  We saw the reaction when the certainty of that event did not happen.  The Wall Street analysts promised us unending prosperity with their Internet stock recommendations. The result to those who followed the experts was broken dreams, more than a few broken families, and a very healthy business for bankruptcy attorneys.

If you believe wholeheartedly in climate science, I have to conclude that this belief comes one of three ways: 1) you are intimately acquainted with the science through having worked in the industry, and performed extensive research yourself, perhaps in conjunction with other scientists in the field.  You have perused the academic journals and trade publications, gaining knowledge and even better understanding of the subject at hand.  Perhaps you have conducted original research that has been published.  If so, congratulations.  The second way is: 2) you are not employed in the industry or even within the scientific field, but you are a thoughtful person who will take the time to read extensively on the subject before forming a carefully considered opinion.  You will immerse yourself in the science, and you will happily read dissenting opinions to gain perspective and further inform your thinking.  You educate yourself and think for yourself.  You will always remain skeptical of prevailing opinion until you are comfortable with your own conclusions.  You will not take the pontifications of commentators, newspapers and definitely not politicians at face value.  I will certainly respect your opinion.  The third way you have come to believe in the climate science argument: 3) you have swallowed someone else’s political agenda hook, line, and sinker.  You have gladly accepted at face value the conclusions without understanding the methodologies behind it, simply because they hold themselves out as “experts”.  You receive your knowledge exclusively from mainstream newspapers and popular talk shows on TV. You never bother to ask yourself critical questions, nor do you conduct any of your own research.  You do not acquaint yourself with the science.  Your thoughts are someone else’s, and your opinion is not carefully formed.  I sincerely hope you are not Number 3.

What about pulling out of the Paris Accord?  The decision itself will not stop the research and the march forward toward cleaner energy.  Companies will continue to exploit profit opportunities in this area - the idea of doing well by doing good.  I have no problem with it at all.  But I refuse to be caught up in the hysteria.  I have no desire to be stampeded.  Is the Accord nothing more than a giant transfer of wealth away from the American taxpayer to the rest of the world?  It is not difficult to make that case, particularly when China, the world's biggest polluter, with the world's largest population and the world's largest economy, does not have to pay anything into the agreement for more than 10 years.  Do I think the earth is going to suffer terrible pollution because of the President's decision? No.  Do I think that companies that have invested so much into a cleaner environment will all of a sudden walk away from it all?  No.  As I stated above, I believe the capitalists will win the fight over the environment.  We have a long ways to go.  But, there is so much to be hopeful about.  The vast majority of Americans want a cleaner environment.  This is a worthy aspiration.  Do I think shipping taxpayer money off to a bunch of different governments, who are only obligated under a "voluntary agreement" to spend it on environmental clean up is a good idea?  No.  Give me the free market, give me an opportunity to exploit it for profit, and give me people with know-how, an unbreakable spirit, a determined work ethic, and the ability to make some money every single time.  Those are the people who will solve this issue.

Coke Is It. Until It Isn't It.

On this day in 1985, Coca-Cola pulled one of the biggest blunders in history.  Ok, maybe I exaggerate.  But the blunder they pulled was enormous. The company announced that it was changing the formula of its flagship product.  What was meant as an update to a venerable product turned into one of the greatest episodes of managerial incompetence that generations of future college students will study every which way.  The 1980’s were the Cola War years in which Pepsi decided it would go after Coke like never before.  Pepsi started gaining market share (they had actually gained market share throughout the 1970’s), and Coke blinked.  They decided they needed to do something big to hold off Pepsi and revitalize the Coke brand. 

People were furious at Coca-Cola’s decision.  They became even angrier when they got a taste of the “New Coke.”  The company was inundated with angry phone calls.  CEO Roberto Goizueta received an angry letter addressed to “Chief Dodo, The Coca-Cola Company.” Protest groups sprang up, the most notable of which was The Old Cola Drinkers of America, led by a man named Gay Mullins. Shortly after its release, one poll of soda drinkers showed that only 13% liked the taste of New Coke.

Just 79 days later, on July 11, 1985, Coca-Cola reversed its decision and announced it would bring back its old formula under the name “Coca-Cola Classic.” It turned out to be a stroke of genius.  People celebrated the return of the old formula, and the Coke brand was revitalized.

Why did Coke change the formula in the first place?  As mentioned above, Pepsi had gained market share versus Coke for 15 consecutive years.  Coke conducted blind taste tests all over the country, and over 200,000 people participated. The results of the taste tests convinced Coke executives that they needed to change to a sweeter formula because that is what consumer preferred.  Why did the formula change backfire?  The company simply did not realize the loyalty of its customers. 

In the old “Coke vs Pepsi” battle, I have always been a Coke guy.  I am also a big believer in not messing with a good thing.  And the business lesson here is keep in touch with your customers.  Gain their loyalty, and maintain it. Find out what makes them prefer your product. The marketers and the taste testers could not measure that loyalty.  Plus, they did not appreciate the mess that can be created when you fix something that is not broken.

Ultimately, Mr. Goizueta would go on to become a legendary CEO, turning Coke into the world’s most valuable brand before his death in 1997.  He, along with his sidekick, Donald Keough, took full advantage of the Communist collapse of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s to beat Coke into Eastern Europe and Asia.  Their blunder also revitalized the Coke brand in the United States.  In short, Coke reasserted its dominance over Pepsi.  But, Mr. Goizueta was also quite stubborn and never could admit that changing the formula in 1985 was a huge mistake. Hopefully, he learned something from it.

And as for Mr. Mullins who led the protest group, The Old Cola Drinkers of America?  He received the first cans of Coca-Cola Classic that rolled off the assembly line in 1985.

Now, if we could only go back to glass bottles.  Coke was not meant to be consumed from aluminum cans or plastic anything.  Coke should only be consumed from glass bottles, or glasses containing Coke dispensed from a fountain.  But that’s the next fight.

Make America Great Again!

Many of us will recognize the title of this essay as the slogan of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign last fall.  Next week, Mr. Trump will be inaugurated as the nation’s 45^th President, and I thought about this slogan again.  I have always found this slogan intriguing, not for any originality, but for the reaction it created, and how it highlighted cultural divides in America.  This slogan can be a great teacher, if we let it.

The slogan implies that America was a once great nation that is no longer great.  Mr. Trump’s opponents scoffed at the slogan, and gave it no further thought.  For me, as I watched Mr. Trump rack up win after win in the Republican primaries, ultimately win the party’s nomination, then win the Presidency, I kept asking myself a question that Mr. Trump’s critics never bothered to ask: Why is this slogan resonating with people? 

To find an answer to this question, I asked myself, who or what made America great in the first place? The “what” is easy.  Ours is a country founded on freedom. But within that, who made this country great?  Again, easy answer.  People.  People such as farmers, teachers, entrepreneurs, soldiers, craftsmen, plumbers, electricians, fireman, policeman, pastors, shop keepers, community bankers, machinists, welders, mechanics, and others like them.  They may not have been the smartest people around, they may not have always made the wisest choices, but they were generally hard working, had hearts full of gratitude, they knew what they were doing, they knew how to take care of themselves and their families, and they possessed a genuine desire to help others. We were blessed with leaders who protected us from our enemies, but otherwise let us live out our dreams.

If those people made America great, then who made it “not great”?  People.  People such as politicians, powerful bankers, lobbyists, bureaucrats, corporate executives, elite university professors.  In short, it was our leaders.  But wait, are these not noble professions and callings?  They are. But, what these people all have in common is that we look to these types of people as the smartest, and most highly educated people. Yet, these are the same people who brought us to this state. These are the very people who necessitated the slogan “Make America Great Again” and made President Donald Trump possible.  But how?  It was the experts who have told us that we need to stop teaching right from wrong. It was the experts who gave us the unprecedented greed that we see from corporate executives, politicians, and the powerful bankers. It is the experts who told us that we need to lose our moral compass.  It was the experts who looked down with contempt at the lives of the average American.  It was the experts who told us they knew what we needed better than we the people knew ourselves.  Yet, those same experts keep telling us they need more and more of our money to solve the problems they created.   In short, the level of arrogance among today’s “experts” is downright sickening.

So, how does all this lead us back to “Make America Great Again”?  To our leaders, lose the arrogance and the attitude quickly.  You are not that smart and we are not that dumb.  We see through your BS.  Trust me, your spin is nothing but complete BS.  It does not matter if you are Democrat, Republican, liberal or conservative.  Quit cramming your crap and cockamamie theories down our throats. Start listening to us.  Start talking to us, not at us.  Do not cherry pick your audience, but listen to a broad spectrum of voices from all walks of life.  Quit trying to blame everyone else for the problems you created.  Own up to your mistakes, learn from them and move forward.  Quit lecturing us about our mistakes while ignoring your own.  No one likes a self- righteous prick, and that is what many of you have become.  Quit believing that you are the only one with all the answers.  No one has all the answers except God, and you are not God.  Quit telling us how stupid we are.  Quit trying to micromanage our lives.

If you want to lead, then become a servant and quit trying to be a master.  A true leader is a servant to his people, not a lord and master.  Show us respect instead of contempt.  Show respect to our forefathers and the wisdom they handed down generation to generation.  Respect the moral compass again.  Respect limits to power.  Those limits are there for a reason.  Let us live in freedom.

To the rest of us.  Show kindness and compassion, especially to the widow, the orphan, the elderly.  Do not scream, yell and generally show disrespect to those who disagree with you.  Two people can disagree without being disagreeable.  Understand that everyone has their own unique point of view and they come by it honestly.  If you do not know why you believe something, then examine why with an open mind and do not be afraid to change your mind.  Always think for yourself.  Educate yourself.  Do not take anything your leaders say at face value.  Do not believe everything you read in the media.  Especially if the opinion being expressed is one you agree with.  If you do, then you do not believe in anything and you will fall for everything.

If we all do these things, we can go a long way to Make America Great Again.

2016 Was A Great Year!

I am seeing a lot of sentiment on my Facebook page about what a lousy, rotten year 2016 turned out to be.  Do not let yourself believe this!  There are plenty of reasons why 2016 was a terrible year: many celebrities who touched our hearts passed away, we elected a rotten person to the Presidency (don’t kid yourself, we were going to elect a rotten person either way), and the Royals failed to repeat as World Series champions. But, this was someone else’s narrative.  Do not let someone else dictate to you whether or not you should feel happy or sad.

Two thousand sixteen was a great year in so many ways.  Many of us experienced extraordinary personal growth, whether it was in our jobs, in our faith, or through the achievement of a lofty personal goal.  There were babies born, graduations, weddings and memorable trips.  We laughed, we danced, we kissed and we loved.  We hugged our loved ones and held on tight.  We rekindled dormant friendships and acquaintances, and we reaffirmed long-time friendships. These are all great and wonderful things!  Personally, I got to experience many of these things and it helped make this a great year.  And I am going to let someone else dictate to me that I should look back at 2016 as a lousy, rotten year? 

I do realize that some of you experienced tremendous sadness or loss.  Some of us lost close friends, or perhaps even a parent or a spouse.  Or God forbid, a child.  My heart goes out to you, and I understand if you think that 2016 was a truly horrific year.  I have been there.  Mourn your loss.  And understand that good times and great moments will return.

Treasure those great times and moments.  They do not come around every day.  As I look back on 2016, the good outweighed the bad.  God richly blessed me.  I look ahead to 2017 with optimism and hope.  My life is not perfect, nor will 2017 be perfect.  There will be times of sadness, and maybe great loss, although I certainly hope not.  Things will not always go as I hope they will.  I still have unfinished business to finish.  But in the end, I know that there will many good times and great moments ahead and that the good will outweigh the bad.

We Hired Who Texas Thinks They Hired

The title of this article comes from a character who calls himself Tiny Mack Rhoads, and I love the sentiment expressed in it.  Tiny Mack Rhoads tweeted this out after the hire of Matt Rhule as Baylor’s new football coach was announced today.  This particular Twitter account is a parody account, but he/she is obviously a Baylor fan, as anyone who has followed this account can attest.  While the Texas Longhorns think they hired the best coach out of the American Athletic Conference, truth is that Baylor might have done the trick instead with their hire of Matt Rhule from Temple. As a Baylor alum, I am glad that we have hired a new football coach and that we now have the opportunity to move forward.  On an even better note, I think Baylor has hired one hell of a football coach!  Is it the perfect hire?  No, there are some notable flaws in the resume.  But the perfect hire was not going to happen with Baylor at this time.

For a little perspective on the wisdom of this hire, I turned to the sports betting books in Las Vegas.  While this seems odd, especially for a Baptist university that “officially” eschews gambling, it offers quite a bit that tells me that Coach Rhule could be (and I think will be) successful at Baylor.  During the 2016 football season, Temple was 9-3 vs the spread.  This means that regardless of where the Vegas sportsbooks set the line for the Temple games this season, Temple beat the spread 75% of the time.  When Temple was favored, they won by more than the spread.  When they were the underdogs, they either lost by less than expected, or they won outright.  In their most recent game, Temple was a 3 point underdog to Navy, and the Owls won the game outright by 24 points.  What does this tell me?  It tells me two things about Matt Rhule as a football coach:

1.      He got more out of his players than conventional statistical analysis suggested he could, meaning they played sound, fundamental football

2.      His teams clearly exceeded expectations, which can only be achieved by playing as a cohesive unit

3.      Exceeding expectations, when you are coming off a 10 win season, is difficult.  Coach Rhule did it.

For comparison purposes, Baylor was 3-8 vs the spread this season.  Baylor clearly needs a coach that can inspire the available talent and lift the overall play higher.

Baylor Head Coach Matt Rhule

That’s a good start, but the task of building a winner at Baylor is monumental.  Then again, the task facing Rhule when he came on board at Temple was also monumental and he turned that program around from one that won 1 game the season before he was hired to one that enjoyed back-to-back 10 win seasons within four years.

All new coaches face the task of hiring a staff, and establishing recruiting, so from this point Baylor is no different than anyone else.  In fact, Baylor may be coming into this in a bit of a sweet spot given that the other schools in Texas all have their issues.  That means that outside schools will have an easier time of it within Texas as well.  Coach Rhule will have to play a huge role in restoring Baylor’s integrity, and that will be an enormous task.  Our rivals do not have to confront the task of restoring integrity.  Unfortunately, most of Baylor’s lost integrity stems from its Board of Regents who show little interest in restoring Baylor’s integrity, especially if that means hanging their cushy little asses (or big as the case may be) out to dry on a meat hook.  Which sounds like a great idea, but I digress.  Baylor only has one football commitment to date, and the national signing day is less than two months away.  Last year’s recruiting class was decimated by the sexual assault scandal.  All I can think is that Coach Rhule is a glutton for punishment to take on this task.

There are notable flaws in his resume, as I noted at the top.  First, he has no Texas ties himself.  This is huge and quite the contrast from former coach Art Briles, who knows every dirt road in Texas. Coach Rhule can hire a staff full of assistants with Texas ties, and I believe he will.  But at the end of the day, the head coach is the face of the program, and Texas high school coaches will need to be comfortable with him before recommending Baylor to their players.  And when it comes to recruiting, the high school coaches play a very big role.

Next, his only head coaching experience is a Temple, a non-Power 5 conference school.  His only previous “Power 5” coaching experience was in 2001 at UCLA as the defensive line coach.  So it is a thin resume.  With that being said, I cannot help but notice that he put 7 of his Temple players in the NFL over the past season, and he still won 10 games this season despite losing all that talent a year ago.  But, still a thin coaching resume.

Finally, Coach Rhule will bring a more conservative offensive philosophy of football to Baylor.  I do not think that is a bad thing, as long as it is fundamentally sound.  Much of this will depend upon who he hires as his offensive coordinator.  But I expect a more conservative offense than we saw under Coach Briles.  Baylor fans will need to rid themselves of the idea that the high flying offense we enjoyed under Coach Briles is the only offense that will produce winning football. I appreciate what Coach Briles brought to the Baylor football program and to the university.  But it is time to move on past him.  That ship has sailed and it is not coming back to port. Now is the time to get on board with Coach Rhule.

Overall, I am optimistic about this hire.  I believe Coach Rhule to be a man of integrity, which will be the most important characteristic he brings to this program.  I also believe he will bring a great deal of energy and plenty of optimism.  He also better bring a boatload of discipline, which is badly needed.  Baylor football was notably lacking discipline under Art Briles.  While his success is not guaranteed, I like what Coach Rhule does bring to the Baylor football program, and that is a very good start.

Finally, two words to Coach Grobe and the players on the 2016 Baylor football team:  Thank you!  You played this season under impossible circumstances.  I cannot imagine playing, and coaching, for an institution that threw you under the bus, did not support you, but gladly took in the money you generated for this university.  I cannot imagine playing for a governing body utterly lacking in integrity itself, but placing the entire load of blame for its problems on your shoulders.  So, I say thank you to each of you and #SicBoise!

50 For 50

50 For 50

By Chuck Heath

November 12, 2016

 

ESPN has its “30 For 30”.  Well, I can do better than that.  After all, I have been around longer than ESPN, so I am older and wiser.  Today, as I turn 50 years old, I offer up my “50 For 50” – Fifty “Pearls of Wisdom” I have learned in 50 years of living.  Some are funny, some are serious, some are inspirational, and some are silly.  I will let you decide which is which.  I have drawn from inspirational and famous quotes, Scripture passages, song lyrics and my own life’s observations.  There are many other pearls of wisdom I can think of, but I feel these offer the best overall combination of perspective, humor and grace.  Enjoy and thank you for reading.  Chuck

50 Thoughts for my 50^th Birthday

1.       No one ever credits their longevity to eating vegetables or to clean living.

2.       If it were up to men to bear children, the world’s population might be as high as 23 now.  Not 23 billion or 23 million or even 23 hundred.  Just 23.

3.       The great thing about growing old is that you only have to do it once.

4.       Above all else, guard your heart, for everything you do flows from it.  (Proverbs 4:23)

5.       Never lose your childlike innocence, or your childlike wonder.

6.       Some of the greatest gifts:  hugs, laughter, and thinking.  Use each every day.

7.       A kind word can make someone’s day.

8.       If you want to find God, listen for the small, still voice.  God is not in the storm, not in the great wind, not in the thunder, not in the lightning, not in the earthquake, hurricane, or tornado.  He’s in the whisper. (1 Kings 19)

9.       Always keep your hope and dreams alive.  When your hope and your dreams die, a part of you dies.

10.   Always look for the good in someone else.

11.   The Lord is never in a hurry, but He’s always on time. (John Shore)

12.   I’ve learned that teams are great things – to see a team accomplish more than the assembled individuals could ever do is a thing of beauty.

13.   People who love sausage and respect the law should never watch either one being made.

14.   Always believe in your children.  Don’t ever give up on them.

15.   You can’t always protect your children from their mistakes.  Let them make mistakes.  It’s how they learn.

16.   Pray every day.  You can change your world with prayer.

17.   Be careful what it is that you pray for.  You might actually get it.

18.   The wisdom of the wise will perish, the intelligence of the intelligent will vanish. Isaiah 29:14  Be able to think for yourself.

19.   When you are on the side of the vast majority of popular opinion, that’s the time to pause and reflect.  That’s not the time to feel comfortable.

20.   Remember that honesty is always the best policy.  Unless your wife or girlfriend asks you if the jeans she’s wearing makes her butt look big.

21.   Always do the right thing.  It will please some folks and astonish the rest. (Mark Twain)

22.   It’s the money you spend, not the money you save, that counts. (Dad)

23.   Thy word is a lamp unto my feet and a light unto my path (Psalm 119:105)

24.   Only the greater fool wins a bidding war.

25.   The two most powerful words in the English language are “Thank you.”  Use them liberally.  You can never have too much gratitude in your heart.

26.   The three most highly charged words are “I love you.”  Use them liberally with your family, and very carefully with all others.

27.   “Amazing Grace” is the greatest song of all time.  Any time, any genre.

28.   You truly do not begin to live until you step out of your comfort zone.

29.   We all have scars, mistakes and hurt in our past.  If you don’t have any baggage from your past, you haven’t lived.

30.   One of life’s great pleasures is seeing a child opening his or her Christmas presents.

31.   The day my ship comes in, they’ll have a dock strike.

32.   The most expensive thing you have purchased and own is the thing you don’t use. 

33.   And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly, to love mercy and to walk humbly^[a] with your God. Micah 6:8

34.   Finally, brothers and sisters, whatever is true, whatever is noble, whatever is right, whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable—if anything is excellent or praiseworthy—think about such things. Philippians 4:8

35.   In matters of style, swim with the tides, in matters of principle, stand firm as a rock.

36.   If a man appears to be lost in deep thought, he’s either thinking about his next meal, his favorite team’s next game, why his car isn’t running right, or sex.

37.   Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

38.   Minor surgery is when they operate on someone else.  Major surgery is when they operate on you.

39.   Never get into a pissing contest with a skunk.

40.   Common sense isn’t so common anymore.

41.   If you can grab a man by his balls (figuratively speaking), his heart and mind will soon follow.

42.   He answered, “‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your strength and with all your mind’; and, ‘Love your neighbor as yourself. (Luke 10:27)

43.   Work hard, play hard.

44.   The bitterness of poor quality is remembered long after the sweetness of a low price is forgotten (Benjamin Franklin)  The words “value” and “inexpensive” are not necessarily synonymous.

45.   If it suddenly ended tomorrow, I could somehow adjust to the fall.  Good times and riches and son-of-a-bitches, I’ve seen more than I can recall. (Jimmy Buffett)

46.   Whatever my lot, thou hast taught me to say, “It is well, it is well, with my soul.” (Horatio Spafford)

47.   Now that I’m 50, I don’t worry about avoiding temptation anymore.  I’m more worried that temptation will avoid me.

48.   My doctor says that I should exercise regularly and that it’s important because it will add years to my life.  He’s right.  Every time I exercise, I feel 10 years older.

49.   The people with truly great power never have to use it.

50.   Husbands love your wives… (Ephesians 5:25).  Men, treat all women with dignity and respect. And treat children with gentleness and kindness. These are some of the greatest things a man can ever do.

51.   And just because I can, I’m adding a bonus pearl of wisdom…stay thirsty my friends!

 

More Thoughts on Baylor

As I have stated on these pages before, I sometimes write these entries not because I have the answers, but because I am still looking for the answers.  I write to help clarify my own thinking and hopefully to those who choose to read this, it will their thinking as well.

Last week, Baylor received another series of blows with the resignation of Title IX Director Patty Crawford, the reinstatement of Jeremy Faulk's scholarship and a Twitter confrontation between the Baylor football coaching staff and the Baylor administration.  Once again, it leaves me about six different kinds of sad for Baylor.  It makes me wonder what is really going on at Baylor, but at the same time, I am highly encouraged by an angry group of alums.

I will start by admitting where I was badly wrong.  Earlier I had praised the Board of Regents for hiring the Pepper Hamilton law firm to find out what went wrong with the sexual assault scandal, particularly as it related to the football program.  I wrongfully assumed that the BOR had Baylor's best interest at heart, and that it was interested in finding out the truth.  I believe I was sorely mistaken on those counts.  What I believe has happened is that Baylor's BOR wanted nothing more than cover for what they wanted to do.

As part of Patty Crawford's resignation, she mentioned that was filing a complaint with the Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights division against COO Reagan Ramsower.  I assume that she, along with her attorney will follow through on this.  And this is where my questions about the Pepper Hamilton "report" begin.

First, Ramsower was the highest ranking administrator at Baylor who came through this unscathed.  Yet the Title IX Director reported to him.  So, the Title IX office was under his perview.  This scandal occurred under his nose, and on his watch.  How the hell did he come out unscathed?  How did Pepper Hamilton deflect all blame away from the very man who was responsible for all this?

To go a bit deeper, did Ramsower keep the BOR fully informed of the division's activities?  Did he keep President Starr fully informed of the division's activities?  The other way of looking at this question:  Was the BOR interested in protecting Ramsower?  Why were they so interested in protecting him?  Ramsower is now at the center of the storm, and the man that the BOR and Pepper Hamilton seemed so interested in protecting is now under federal investigation thanks to Ms. Crawford's actions.  Pay particular attention to this investigation.  The DOE isn't being paid by Baylor, and they have no interest in protecting the Baylor brand.  They could blow the lid off Baylor.

Was Pepper Hamilton actually charged with finding the truth - or just finding the truth as seen through the eyes of the BOR?  Which meant protecting their little "patsy" in the administration.  How many of Pepper Hamilton's 105 recommendations actually focused on Ramsower himself or the BOR?  It sure looks like the people who hired this law firm, and paid them, were strangely absolved of a lot of blame.

Now I will say that I still believe that the firing of Art Briles was justified.  I do not believe he held his players accountable for their behavior.  I believe him to be a very good and decent man who made a colossal error in judgment.  His lack of action regarding his players has left many lives torn and traumatized for years.  And as he said on ESPN, he was the captain of the ship, and the captain goes down with the ship.  So to those alums that want to bring Briles back...forget about it!

At the same time, as Ms. Crawford said, football is actually a very small part of this scandal, and the administration wants to whitewash it and pretend that it will go away.  It will not just go away.  The BOR and the administration needs to own up to its own failings.  And they now need to own up to the failings of the Pepper Hamilton recommendations, and they need to explain all this in very explicit detail.  Of course, they also need to protect privacy, but I do believe that the BOR and the administration can be far more forthcoming while protecting the identity of the victims.

Thanks to the BOR's and/or Dr. Ramsower's inattention to this matter, Baylor will face astronomical legal costs.  So far, eight women have come forward to sue the university.  The BOR and administration's response has been harsh and has been to make it as difficult as possible for the victims, which only insult to their injury.  I expect many more women to come forward as this scandal continues to get uglier.

I do want to conclude by saying that Baylor has so many good things going for it.  First and foremost, many administrators, faculty and staff are truly great people.  I cannot stress this enough.  So many of the students are terrific people too.  There are thousands of young students on campus who are eager to learn and to make a positive difference in the world.  The facilities and amenities are first class all the way.  And a young student can truly receive a first rate education at this terrific institution.  Baylor also possesses a fiercely loyal alumni base who truly love this university.  And right now, many of these alums are angry at the BOR and the administration.  And justifiably so.  It is this group that is loudly demanding the truth about what happened. 

I am also a Baylor alum who fiercely loves this university.  And I want the truth to come out.  I want the victims to receive their justice from Baylor.  They deserve it.  The more I hear coming out of Baylor, the more I believe Patty Crawford's perspective on the shenanigans going on at Baylor.  And that saddens me.  It saddens me that this group of Regents and a select group of administrators have pulled the biggest breach of fiduciary duty in the history of the university.  It is time to revolt against those who put Baylor in its current mess.